Following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's fragile three-party coalition (Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens), the leaders of Germany's major parties have agreed to hold a general election on Sunday, February 23, 2025. As Germany prepares for the next major election campaign, political analysts and voters alike are preparing for a turning point in the country's political development. The upcoming federal election will have far-reaching implications not only for Germany but also for Europe and the world as a whole, as the global political landscape shifts under the weight of growing economic instability, climate concerns, and the war in Ukraine. From the role of political parties to the campaign promises of individual candidates, the stage is set for a dramatic election that will determine the political direction of Germany for years to come.

The election will focus on several pressing issues, including the country's handling of its energy crisis, the integration of immigrants, its role in the European Union, and its stance on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. With Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s (SPD) Social Democrats at the helm of government since 2021, this election will serve as a test of his government’s popularity as well as the stability of the coalition government, which is facing challenges due to policy disagreements and increasing voter dissatisfaction.

The main issues influencing voter sentiment

While the future of the European Union and German foreign policy will undoubtedly dominate the election, it is domestic issues, particularly energy and the economy, that voters are most concerned about. Germany is at the forefront of Europe's energy crisis as its heavy reliance on Russian gas and oil is now being replaced by more expensive alternatives, leaving households and businesses alike to struggle with rising costs. The SPD’s attempts to transition Germany to greener energy sources through its ambitious Energiewende program are under scrutiny as voters question whether the government’s green policies are viable in the face of current energy shortages.

Economic uncertainty, exacerbated by rising inflation rates and growing prospects of recession, is causing many to doubt the government's economic leadership. The SPD under Scholz faces a delicate balancing act as it attempts to deliver on promises of economic stability while tackling the wider challenges of a post-pandemic world and the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine.

Immigration policy is another point of contention. The arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, and other conflict zones has put a strain on the German social and economic system. While many Germans support a humanitarian approach to refugees, others are concerned about the state's ability to integrate new arrivals and the strain this places on public services. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has capitalized on these fears, stirring up nationalist rhetoric that threatens to tear apart the country’s traditionally inclusive identity.

Who is who in the next election?

In the upcoming election, several political forces are vying for control, each with its vision for the future of Germany. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Chancellor Scholz, has made sustainability and economic stability the cornerstones of its campaign. Scholz’s leadership at the start of the war in Ukraine and his commitment to European unity have earned him recognition on the international stage, but his government’s domestic policies, particularly in the areas of energy and immigration, have come under fire. His pledge to continue to support the green transition is a key focus of the SPD program, but voters are increasingly frustrated with the high cost of living and the slow pace of economic recovery.

On the right, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) under the leadership of Friedrich Merz has positioned itself as a party of tradition and stability. The CDU’s economic approach focuses on fiscal conservatism and a reform of German immigration policy. Merz is expected to push for tougher measures against asylum seekers and a more assertive stance towards the EU, particularly about the bloc's handling of the energy crisis. With its focus on tax cuts, deregulation, and cutting red tape, the CDU aims to appeal to entrepreneurs and those who believe the current government’s policies are damaging Germany’s economic competitiveness.

In contrast, the Greens, one of the most influential German parties of the post-Merkel era, have consolidated their position as advocates of climate protection measures. In coalition with the SPD, the Greens have been instrumental in advancing green policies such as carbon reduction targets, the expansion of renewable energy, and sustainable agriculture. However, their position is made more difficult by the practical implementation of these ambitious goals while ensuring economic growth and maintaining social prosperity. Green voters are strongly committed to action on climate change but are also increasingly impatient with the lack of tangible results.

Finally, the far-right AfD is making significant headway by tapping into voters' frustration with the two traditional parties. The AfD’s anti-immigration, anti-EU, and nationalist rhetoric has gained traction among sections of the population who feel alienated by globalization and the perceived erosion of German identity. The party's rise is a clear indication of the growing divide in German society, where fear of cultural change and mistrust of the political elite have led to the popularity of extremist positions.

The challenge of governing a divided nation

One of the characteristic features of modern German politics is the dominance of coalition governments. As no party has a clear majority, compromise and negotiation are the norm. This creates a complex political environment in which parties must work together to form a workable government, even if they disagree on key policy issues. The coalition government led by Scholz’s SPD has been criticized from both the left and the right. The Greens have campaigned for a more aggressive climate policy, while the Free Democrats (FDP), also part of the coalition, have argued for tax cuts and a reduction in the regulatory burden on businesses. Meanwhile, the CDU and AfD continue to attack the government’s record on immigration and economic management, leaving voters wondering whether a more united government might not be a better option.

As the political system becomes increasingly fragmented, the next election could produce new and unexpected alliances. The possibility of a “grand coalition” between the SPD and the CDU, as has been seen in the past, cannot be ruled out. However, this would likely require significant political compromise on both sides and it is unclear whether such a coalition could effectively address the pressing challenges facing Germany.

Why is the German election a defining moment for the EU and global politics?

Germany has long been considered the economic and political powerhouse of Europe. Therefore, the outcome of the German election will be important not only for Germany but for the entire European Union. The next government will play a crucial role in shaping the EU’s response to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and the wider challenges of climate change and economic recovery. Germany’s relationship with Russia, for example, is likely to be a focus of foreign policy discussions. Although the SPD government has pledged to support Ukraine, there is growing concern among the German population about the long-term consequences of the war. The new German government will have to master the delicate balance between maintaining European unity and avoiding further escalation that could lead to a wider conflict with Russia.

Furthermore, Germany’s handling of the climate crisis will continue to be a key issue for the EU and beyond. As Europe's largest economy, Germany will set the tone for other EU member states with its commitment to climate action, particularly about the European Green Deal and carbon neutrality. Germany’s political future Ultimately, the upcoming elections in Germany will be a test of the country's political resilience and ability to adapt to a rapidly changing world. The challenges facing the country are immense, from domestic economic problems to foreign policy dilemmas. With the future of the European Union and the world order at stake, the decisions of German voters will resonate far beyond the country's borders.

As the country grapples with questions of identity, economic stability, and its role in global conflicts, the next government has a unique opportunity to reshape Germany’s future. Will the country continue on the path of green transformation and economic reform, or will it turn inward and prioritize national interests over global cooperation? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the outcome of this election will have a lasting impact on Germany, Europe, and the whole world.