The repeated attacks on oil tankers and energy, fuel, and food supplies have cast a heavy shadow of doubt over the future of global trade projects in the Middle East. Questions were raised about how groups like the Houthis and Al-Qaeda managed to find common ground. Although on the surface, they seem to be two distant worlds.
The Houthis are a Yemeni movement, while Al-Qaeda operates on a global level. But when it comes to their enemies, they agree face to face. Both groups have a common enemy from their perspective, which is represented by Western influence and regional competitors. This alignment is ringing alarm bells throughout the Middle East and beyond.
A terrorist coalition threatens the world
The situation in the public scene was not limited to those organisations alone, as the Somali youth movement also joined the equation. This militant Somali group shares similar ideologies with Al-Qaeda and fights for control over Somalia. Their partnership with the Houthis is increasing threat levels in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The problem is not only related to the land, but also to the spread of extremist ideas. When these groups collaborate, they create fertile ground for terrorism that harms everyone.
The impact on regional stability
The ties between these groups already threaten the fragile peace in the region. Countries like Yemen and Somalia, and even other neighbouring countries are at risk. And when these armed groups work together, it gives them more resources and strength. Imagine a pack of wolves hunting together; they become much more dangerous than if they were alone. This collaboration could lead to an increase in attacks and instability, affecting ordinary citizens who just want to live in peace.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a major waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea, has recently become a hotspot for tension. This narrow corridor, which is only about 20 miles wide at its narrowest point, plays a vital role in the transportation of global energy. With the escalation of conflicts in the region, the implications for energy supplies around the world have become increasingly concerning.
Threat to global shipping and current tensions
Bab el-Mandeb is not just an ordinary strait; it is a vital crossroads for shipping routes that transport oil and gas. More than 4 million barrels of crude oil pass through here daily, making it one of the busiest maritime routes in the world. Any disruption in this area can lead to severe consequences for global energy markets and prices.
The recent escalation in military presence and skirmishes among regional powers has raised alarm bells. The strait witnessed increased maritime activity and threats of a blockade, which could hinder the free flow of shipping.
The domino effect on energy prices
When conflict erupts in such a vital region, its effects are felt all around the world. Oil prices can rise quickly, leading to increased costs for ordinary consumers. Any minor disruption in the strait could raise concerns in the markets, prompting speculators to act swiftly. It's the domino effect. A small push can lead to a big fall.
From this assessment of risks and threats, one can read and understand the motives and reasons behind Egypt's deployment of its military aircraft to Somalia within 14 days after signing the military cooperation protocol on August 14, 2024. This carries significant strategic and military implications, reflecting a qualitative shift in Egypt's foreign military policy.
It seems that a joint, ongoing, and prior evaluation process has taken place between Cairo and Mogadishu regarding the potential threats facing Somalia. These threats may include internal armed groups or external interventions. According to observers, it is likely that Egypt received definitive intelligence indicating an escalation of threats in the region, prompting it to take proactive steps to ensure stability in Somalia, along with the siege of escalating maritime threats.
Egypt's rapid deployment of its military forces indicates Cairo's desire to send a clear message to all concerned parties, reaffirming its steadfast support for the unity and sovereignty of Somalia over its territory and its rejection of any external interventions that may affect its stability. This swift move also highlights that Egypt considers the situation in Somalia a strategic priority.
The shift from a reactive policy to a proactive policy means that there is a desire to move beyond traditional frameworks and learn from the lessons gained from previous national security files, indicating a maturity in dealing with strategic issues.
Egypt's rapid military movement beyond its borders by a distance of 3,500 km is an action we have not witnessed since the Gulf War in 1990. It underscores Egypt's efforts to enhance its influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. This move, which comes amid intense international competition in the region, indicates that the decision was made based on accurate intelligence and a strategic vision aimed at protecting Egyptian interests and national security, as well as supporting the interests of its alliances in the region.
It reflects a qualitative shift in Egyptian military policy and serves as an indicator of adopting a new approach that relies on initiative and rapid movement, not just diplomatically, to protect the depth of vital and strategic security interests in various strategic regions.