Accelerating questions are making their way into the African political consciousness as the makeup of the White House's Global Council begins to take shape. Prophecies do not take optimistic or pessimistic paths but are based on past real-life scenarios.

The scenes of U.S. President Donald Trump's insulting words and actions towards Africa during his first term are still etched in the memory of many Africans. However, there are mixed reactions to the second Trump administration and its relationship with the African continent. In predicting the trajectories of the second Trump administration, it is important to consider the recent past.

During his first term, President Donald Trump made headlines with derogatory statements about African countries, referring to some of them as “shithole countries” and questioning why the United States accepts immigrants from these regions. This language not only stunned the international community but also strained U.S. relations with African countries, giving rise to a tone of disregard that some claim has shaped U.S. policy toward the continent he never set foot on. Can we see the continuation of these policies towards Africa?

Trump's return to the White House could indeed lead to a continuation of some of the policies and attitudes observed during his first term, but with potential variations based on evolving geopolitical dynamics and domestic priorities. Here are some key points to consider:

Rhetoric and diplomatic relations

Trump's disparaging remarks during his first term have had a lasting impact on U.S. and Africa relations. If similar rhetoric continues, it could further strain diplomatic relations and foster resentment among African nations. However, there may be efforts to mitigate this through more strategic diplomatic engagement and outreach by other members of his administration.

Economy and commerce

Trump's "America First" policy could lead to a reassessment of trade agreements and economic partnerships with African countries. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for eligible African countries, could come under scrutiny. Changes to AGOA or other trade policies could affect African exports and economic growth.

Security and counter-terrorism

Security cooperation and counter-terrorism efforts are likely to remain a priority, especially in regions such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. However, the approach may be more transactional, focusing on immediate U.S. interests rather than long-term stability.

There is a growing recognition that many of the groups designated as terrorist organisations are primarily local insurgencies with limited global reach. This has led to debates about the appropriate level of U.S. military involvement and the need for a more nuanced approach that includes political and economic solutions.

Chinese symptoms

The Trump administration is trying to reduce China's influence in Africa. The U.S. could offer African countries more investment and partnerships to reduce their reliance on China. Trump will likely take action on Africa-China ties in his second term. He is worried about China's influence around the world, and Africa's reliance on Chinese investment could lead to policies to counter China's influence.

The U.S. says the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) makes Africa dependent on China, and they may try to counter China's influence by increasing economic pressure or warning African leaders about the dangers of Chinese loans and investments. This could put African countries in a difficult position. Allying with the U.S. could jeopardies lucrative projects with China, while favouring China could damage relations with the U.S.

Humanitarian and development aid

Trump has expressed skepticism about the value of foreign aid, often arguing that the money would be better invested in the U.S. Based on this perspective, a second Trump administration could impose stricter restrictions on aid to African countries. Health, education and humanitarian programs could face significant cuts.

For example, the fragile gains made against diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria could be jeopardised if funding is cut, especially in countries that rely heavily on U.S. aid. Humanitarian organisations’ fear that a reduced U.S. commitment could lead to significant setbacks in public health, food security, and poverty reduction efforts. African countries with fragile health systems, inadequate infrastructure, and poverty-related challenges could see conditions worsen, leading to higher levels of migration and internal displacement.

In summary, while some of the policies from Trump's first term might continue, there could also be adjustments based on new geopolitical realities and domestic priorities. The overall impact on Africa will depend on how these policies are implemented and how African countries navigate their relationships with the U.S. and other global powers.