This year’s European elections were hotly anticipated around the world. Across Europe, a tide of populism has swept through politics over recent years, bringing voter discontent to the front doors of politicians and bureaucrats.
As many expected, there was a surge in the right-wing vote in those elections, with right-leaning groupings in the European parliament enjoying more seats and more influence than before and centrist groupings battling with internal squabbles and verging on total collapse.
However, thanks to the way the EU’s political institutions operate, centrist Ursula von der Leyen retained her position as president of the European Commission by holding together her coalition of support, which excludes right-wing populists.
That means continuity. In the short term, it means things are a little calmer than they otherwise would have been. However, looking further into the future, things may get more difficult for von der Leyen and her allies as it becomes clear they need to appease the voters behind the populist surge one way or another.
One of the top issues driving voters away from mainstream parties and towards the political fringes is immigration. Parties like the Brothers of Italy, which have seen electoral success recently, have made bold promises to voters to tackle illegal immigration as well as reduce the number of legal immigrants crossing European borders.
This is a difficult issue for politicians like von der Leyen, whose careers have their roots in the Brussels political mainstream. Her government struck a hasty policy deal before the election, overhauling asylum rules in a bid to appease the European right-wing, but if the election results are anything to go by, it was not successful.
On immigration and a wide range of other issues, those in power in Brussels seem determined to avoid governing together with their new right-wing parliamentary colleagues and instead continue almost as before, albeit with a few policy tweaks. That sets them up for an almighty political showdown with the right.
Other hot-button political issues set to be at the centre of the coming battles are often focused on civil liberties. Voters across the continent resent being told what to do by the powers that be, especially when that costs them more money and they are already being squeezed by inflation and the cost of living.
Despite that, European politicians seem determined to use health policy to curb citizens’ lifestyle choices. The French and German governments recently threw their weight behind an EU-wide ban on vaping flavours, according to a report from the news website Clearing the Air.
It seems several other governments, including Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands, are calling on the EU to crack down on vaping in Europe. That’s despite the fact that it has helped millions quit smoking, which is much more harmful, and scientific evidence overwhelmingly suggests restricting access to vaping makes populations less healthy, not more.
Nonetheless, the anti-vaping crusade is consistent with the EU’s policy agenda, which has also seen it promote controversial environmental policies like the European Green Deal. Pesticide rules led to angry protests from farmers around the continent, leading to a partial climbdown from Brussels.
Overall, though, the high-tax and high-regulation approach to environmental issues from the EU remains intact, even though experts have produced other green policy proposals which would do a better job of saving the planet without heaping so much pressure on the wallets of ordinary people.
The electoral chaos is not over. Many more European countries are scheduled to vote in the upcoming months. There are lots of moving parts, such as domestic political tensions in Italy carrying the potential to undermine the power base prime minister Giorgia Meloni has built for herself in Brussels.
One thing is certain: the European project is on shaky ground. The European Union looks very different from how its founders imagined it a few decades ago, when it was known as the ‘European Economic Community’ and had its roots in economic cooperation.
Now, it’s not just economic issues keeping Brussels awake at night. Politics and culture are here to stay. Their influence over the future of the European project will only grow in the coming years.