Today, the Ukraine war dominates the global headlines. After three years of Russian aggression, the war still rages on in Ukraine. The Russian military is making creeping advances to capture more Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, the US is the largest single donor of aid to Ukraine. As of December 31, 2024, Europe had contributed 132.3 billion euros in given aid, versus 114.2 billion given by the US.

More importantly, it was the US that provided the essential weapons to Ukraine in its war against Russia. It was American air defenses which proved to be critical in defending the Ukrainian cities from Russian attacks.

But after President Zelensky’s debacle with President Trump on February 28 to end the war, the US will not support Ukraine anymore. The meeting was just a setup by President Trump. Then came British Prime Minister Starmer's plan over the weekend at a gathering of European leaders and Zelensky to aid Ukraine against Russian aggression. Zelensky and European leaders want a U.S. 'backstop' to any peace deal. They believe U.S. air power or air defense systems are essential for deterring any future Russian attack but are ready to deploy U.K. and French peacekeepers if a deal can be made.

The Trump administration believes that a minerals deal, giving the US a huge stake in Ukrainian reserves of critical rare earth deposits, would be enough to protect Ukraine.

But the British prime minister Starmer said on March 2 that the mineral deal is not enough on its own. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has clearly warned Zelensky that time is running out for him.

Notwithstanding the new European plan, the question is whether it can be done. The answer is no. There is a prohibitive cost to end the war. Europe cannot afford more military spending because it is facing chronically low growth, high debt loads, and looming tariffs imposed by President Trump. Increasing military spending to 3 percent of GDP is not going to be easy as Europe will have to make unpopular social spending cuts. Another political possibility being considered is loosening fiscal rules to allow for greater defense spending.

But Europe’s economy is slowing and its competitiveness is declining. Simply put, Europe is declining and does not have the money to immediately give Ukraine. Also, Europe does not have a leadership to convince its people to make the required huge sacrifices. Realpolitik logic requires a reset of American foreign policy. The US has focused on Russia, NATO, and Europe for too long while the real challenge resides elsewhere. In the future, the US will surely downgrade NATO even if it continues as a defense alliance.

Too bad for Europe.

The Trump administration has now made it clear, and rightly so, that Europe must shoulder the responsibility for its security and that of Ukraine. The US is now going to focus on a showdown with China. Russia is a declining power while China is a rising one. It is in the national interest of the US to tackle the immense challenge posed by China, which is now a formidable adversary. China is now beating the US in many high technology sectors which requires a massive deployment of resources to close the gap.

Hence the new trade tariffs by the Trump administration. At least, there is a rude awakening in the US that it is no longer the sole superpower, and that China is fast developing to replace the country that has long dominated the world. There is now a rest of American foreign policy. Whether the US can successfully meet these challenges remains to be seen, however.

Finally, on March 18, 2025, U.S. President Trump called President Putin to endorse a full cease-fire; he instead presented his demands to end the fighting. Putin only agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Putin’s reaction indicated that he was the main obstacle to any peace deal to end the Ukraine war and that the way ahead was a difficult one. Trump will now apply real pressure on Putin to make concessions remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, Russia will still basically stall on the ceasefire as it wants to achieve more territory in Ukraine. Putin is focused on Russian victory in its “most existential conflict” since the Second World War and not on improved relations with the US. Putin has long claimed that Russia is threatened by NATO’s expansion in the erstwhile Soviet Union’s orbit in eastern Europe. Europe, Putin falsely calls this development “the root causes” of the Ukrainian conflicts.

Trump is right to believe that Ukraine will be unable to liberate eastern regions captured by Russia and Crimea, annexed by Putin in 2014. Ukraine will have to cede some territory to Russia to end the war. Even European governments that have supported Ukraine agreed.

Given Russia’s national interests, any peace deal to end the war will be a complicated affair. President Trump will certainly have to apply a lot more pressure on Putin to achieve it. Most likely, President Trump will do so only because he wants to shift attention to the looming Chinese threat. Notwithstanding President Putin’s pretensions and ambitions, Russia is no longer a direct threat to the US, since it is a declining power. The real threat to the US is China, not Russia.