Ceding territories and initiating negotiations—these calls have been consistently voiced by countries of the Global South throughout the past year of the full-scale war in Ukraine. Now, similar statements are increasingly heard from Western nations, which were previously considered reliable partners of Kyiv. Is this merely rhetoric, or a sign that many are genuinely turning away from Ukraine?

Bulgaria supports Ukraine in NATO; the U.S. opposes; Erdoğan hesitates

At the start of 2022, the world united around Ukraine, providing financial aid and military equipment. However, today, a significant portion of countries are shifting their focus toward alliances like BRICS, while cracks are forming within Europe. Countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, Portugal, Spain, and even Germany are increasingly reluctant to supply heavy weaponry to Ukraine.

Public discourse now frequently features calls to sit at the negotiating table and end the war. The most common justification is:

Our priority is to prevent an escalation of the conflict and ensure it does not spiral into a regional war.

But is this rhetoric or a genuine attempt to compel Ukraine to lean toward peace? To clarify, we spoke with Dmytro Muzyka, a member of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council.

"I don’t see any coercion to peace. I judge by actions. If we’re being funded to continue the war, then the war will continue. Individual statements reflect personal opinions about our situation. If they wanted to force us to negotiate, they would have cut off funding immediately. Talks about ending the war cannot happen amid ongoing mobilization and increased arms deliveries," Muzyka told.

According to Muzyka, defense funding and the development of Ukraine’s domestic defense industry are only intensifying, which clearly does not signal readiness for peace.

Diverging opinions on NATO membership

Countries also differ in their views on Ukraine’s NATO membership—a key element of President Zelensky’s victory plan. During the UN General Assembly, Bulgaria’s foreign minister stated that the alliance's security would only be guaranteed with Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO. At the same time, Turkish President Erdoğan emphasized that the U.S. and other NATO members are reluctant to admit Ukraine.

The main question, however, is the position the U.S. will take on Zelensky’s plan and who will implement it. Donald Trump has already declared that, if elected, he will first contact Zelensky and Putin to propose negotiations. Kamala Harris would likely continue Joe Biden’s policy of supporting Ukraine.

A shifting war: what has changed?

This conflict represents a complex and dynamic combination of two forms of war. The first is a traditional war of attrition unfolding along a 1,000-kilometer front line. In this format, Russia theoretically has the advantage due to its larger mobilization capacity. The situation is further complicated by North Korea's involvement; around 12,000 North Korean soldiers are expected to arrive in Russia’s Kursk region in the coming weeks, according to President Zelensky.

Additionally, the enemy holds significant superiority in artillery and drones. While the European Union promised Ukraine one million shells a year ago, delays in weapons deliveries and political pressure on Russia raise questions about the West's real intentions.

Political strategist Oleksandr Mangush highlighted the diplomatic transformation and rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

"What we’re seeing is not so much fatigue as a loss of interest and growing irritation related to the war in Ukraine. The West is beginning to feel the financial consequences of its support. Fuel, electricity, gas, water, and groceries have all become much more expensive. Leftist parties and Democrats are exploiting support for Ukraine as a political issue, blaming the war for government shortcomings and financial crises," Mangush said.

According to him, this narrative is actively fueled by opposition parties that are coming to power. They criticize their predecessors for channeling significant resources to Ukraine instead of addressing domestic problems.

"Put bluntly, 'We’re living worse because of Ukraine.' This resonates with the public. All of this creates a negative image of Ukraine as a 'financial burden' for Europeans," Mangush added.

Dmytro Muzyka, meanwhile, believes politicians should be more cautious in their rhetoric, as this conflict is not a game, and people are dying in Ukraine.

"Those in power need to tone down their statements, and those within the system must realize that we are at war and profiting from it is wrong. Less hype and more help," Muzyka added.

How to preserve Ukraine if allies turn away

The war continues, but in the West, calls for negotiations with Russia are growing louder. What once seemed like mere diplomatic maneuvering may soon transform into concrete steps. The key question for Ukraine is how to secure its future if major allies begin pushing Kyiv toward peace on terms that disregard its national interests.

As long as funding and arms supplies continue, fears linger about what will happen if Europe or the U.S. decide to reduce support for economic or political reasons. War fatigue, growing domestic issues, and attempts to maintain relations with Russia could prompt Western partners to rethink their strategies toward Ukraine. If the flow of weapons and finances dwindles, Kyiv will face an existential challenge.

In such conditions, the government must seek ways to minimize dependence on external aid. One key solution is developing a robust domestic military-industrial complex. Local production of weapons and ammunition would not only bolster defense capabilities but also create jobs to support the economy during the war. Joint projects with Poland and other Eastern European allies could partially offset reduced supplies from major Western nations.

Diplomacy also takes center stage. Ukraine must build flexible relationships not only with the EU and the U.S. but also with other global players such as Turkey, India, and Latin American countries. Flexibility in international relations will allow Kyiv to maintain room for maneuver if traditional allies weaken their support.

Recent diplomatic visits, such as Indian Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Kyiv, demonstrate that dialogue can be established with diverse nations, ensuring support from various quarters while India continues to advocate for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

In conclusion, there is no direct pressure on Ukraine to negotiate at this time. However, if the West decides to "turn off the tap" to serve its interests, Ukraine must be ready to act independently.

The history of Ukraine today is not only a struggle for territory or political principles. It is a story of the resilience of a people who, despite betrayal, the fatigue of allies, or economic hardships, do not lose faith in themselves or the justice of their cause.