My thesis is that we can better understand Trump’s behavior if we consider the power dynamics of our economic elite. It begins with the observation and warning of President Eisenhower concerning the power of the military-industrial complex. In the 1970s, the big oil and gas industry of the United States discovered, along with others, the existence of climate warming from fossil fuel emissions and began their campaign of mystification and resistance to any change in the reliance on oil and gas and coal. Bluntly stated, that they created climate change.

Subsequently, the consolidation of businesses’ economic power and influence over politics was made possible by creating PACs and super PACs. This allowed businesses to donate to a candidate’s political campaign as long as the communication was not direct between the candidate’s campaign and the PAC. These political action committees have only to mirror the candidate’s campaign. PACs, by the way, were supported by both parties.

Other business sectors made themselves heard by the relentless influence over consumers in the name of free “unrestrained” capitalism. For example, the food industry introduced many forms of unhealthy products despite a growing crisis of American obesity. Many would say they helped create it.

Another characteristic of this elite is that every sector is allowed to maximize profits, with the result that general services, which involve multiple industries, such as healthcare, are about twice as expensive as the European equivalent. The insurance companies, the hospitals, the doctors, the pharmacies, and the pharmaceutical companies all must get the maximum profit. The cost of a university education also skyrocketed, leaving high schoolers behind in earnings, health, and even life expectancy—that is, six years more for college graduates.

How does this apply to Trump? One clear example is the President's stance on “Drill baby drill” from the industry’s playbook. The oil and gas industry may not explore much more with rather low prices but will use any excuse, such as the additional energy for AI computing centers, to sell more fossil fuels. The President's policy is completely aligned with that of the petroleum industry. Another example is that of high tech, particularly the information industry, which wants no limits on protection of the consumer regarding truth checking or use of consumers’ data. Indeed, the comments of the American Secretary of State reflect this outlook of Silicon Valley. Notably, Big Tech companies were large contributors to the Trump campaign, as seen by the presence of their managers at the inauguration.

There is the general outlook of the economic elite that it is better if there is an inactive Congress and political machine that does not interfere with business itself. Therefore, business is not particularly concerned with the reorganization and cost-cutting in government if it does not have any negative consequence for the business itself. We cannot expect the elite to oppose Musk unless business uncertainty and profits become a problem.

Concerning tariffs, the elite view a tariff war as unproductive. Many of the proposals by Trump for tariff increases are couched in uncertain or limited time spans. The banks and the economic elite would not like to have a crisis of inflation and declining stock market values. This is likely not difficult for Trump because it would also have negative political consequences, which he would rather avoid. Thus, we can expect limited trade wars.

For the military-industrial complex, the idea is to have much greater expenditure in the defense against China. That also explains why Trump is adamant about Europeans taking more of their defense expenditures. This was already evident in Trump’s first four years in office. He also dislikes Europe because it tends to protect its consumers and have a more controlled form of capitalism. His warming towards Putin is also part of this reaction. Personally, Trump likes to think of himself as a king, or mafia boss, ruling the world with Xi and Putin. This will be tolerated as long as it does not go against the business elites’ interests. After his insulting and ill-planned press conference with Zelensky, Trump declared, “This is going to be great television.”

Our military would not like to go to war with Europe over Greenland but would not be opposed to a distraction in Panama.

Where does this leave us? As far as democracy is concerned, I think the Trump phenomenon has exposed the lack of democracy that exists in the US. It is a plutocracy. Can we change it? At best, Trump will only last four years. Can Europe meet its challenges?

Ultimately, it depends on the problems we wish to address. The physical-chemical climate system does not “care” about human frailties; it operates according to the laws of nature. After the next four years, the necessity and opportunity for climate improvement will arise. We, the people, can strive toward a resilient, healthy planet. The privileged believe they can protect themselves or possibly live on Mars and thus are less concerned. They are content with this winner-take-all capitalism. The battle lines are drawn. We must wake up, begin by abolishing PACs, reclaim our democracy, and restore the planet.