On November 16th, presidential elections will be held in Chile, a country that has been considered a model of prosperity and political stability over the last 30 years. Its high growth rates, low public debt and fiscal deficit, with a wide network of trade agreements, foreign investment, significant reduction in poverty, together with other variables, made it a kind of paradigm for Latin American countries, as well as for developed economies as a reliable partner on the political and economic level.

All of this is now part of a nostalgic past for a sector of the government of two coalitions led by President Gabriel Boric, one hard left and the other social democratic, which vindicates what has been done since 1990. The hard left, to which the current president belongs, grouped today in the Frente Amplio and who were opponents of Michelle Bachelet's last government, dreamed of “taking the sky by storm” when they reached the presidency, but they quickly found themselves face to face with the harsh earthly reality of politics. To this day, they maintain many of the questions they asked about the 30-year period, one of the country's fastest growing periods. Some of that criticism was justified and allowed them to leap from the universities to building a project in just 10 years that reached the government with the aim of fundamentally ending neoliberalism and implementing a new economic development model.

Reality soon set in, and the failure became apparent with the massive rejection of the proposed re-foundational constitution project, compounded by political inexperience marked by awkward situations, scandals, arrogance, but more than anything else, by the failure to change any of the foundations of the economic and social model inherited from the Pinochet dictatorship. Neither the private pension model, nor the health model, nor the constitution have been reformed, and there is only one year left in the government's term. Among the positive achievements are the significant increase in the minimum wage to just over 540 dollars, a limited pension reform, and the payment of a debt of more than 30 years to teachers. However, and despite other positive changes, this government will be remembered for what it promised and not for what it achieved.

The massive immigration of the last 10 years, which has exceeded one million people, together with a wave of violence unprecedented in Chilean society (obviously excluding the atrocious crimes and robberies of the military dictatorship), have transformed the political scene where compulsory voting will play an important role in the presidential and parliamentary elections in November. Added to this is the fact that the constitution grants the right to vote to any legal resident who has lived in Chile for five years, without the need for them to have citizenship. How the electoral balance will tip is still unknown, although today the polls give a majority to the right. The forces that support the government are weakened, divided on various issues, and lacking a unifying and identifying leadership.

The right currently has three candidates for the presidency, who have become a kind of “German division” in Chilean politics, as all three are second- and third-generation Germanic descendants: Evelyn Matthei (71), José Antonio Kast (59), and Johannes Kaiser (49).

The first, an economics graduate, is a descendant of German settlers who arrived in Chile in the 19th century. She was a presidential candidate in 2013 for the right-wing forces to face Michelle Bachelet, obtaining only 37.38% of the vote. She has been a minister, a senator for the right-wing Independent Democratic Union (UDI) and recently left her post as mayor to contest the next presidential election. Her father was commander-in-chief of the Air Force and a member of the military junta led by Pinochet for 17 years. Moreover, when the dictator was arrested in London based on an international arrest warrant issued by a Spanish judge, Evelyn Matthei protested indignantly, demanding his release in front of the British and Spanish embassies in Santiago. She also called for tomatoes and eggs to be thrown at the diplomats and for a boycott of English and Spanish products, as can be seen in videos from the time.

José Antonio Kast is the son of a German army officer who reached the rank of lieutenant after his compulsory enlistment in 1942. His father fought in World War II together with his seven brothers, of whom only two survived. A lawyer by profession, the son was a four-time member of parliament for the UDI party, from which he withdrew to create the Republican Party, with links to the AfD in Germany, to Vox in Spain, to the Argentine government of Javier Milei and the Salvadoran government of Nayib Bukele. He has been a presidential candidate twice: in 2017, obtaining 7.93% of the vote, and in 2021, when he won in the first round of the election with 27.91%, but was defeated in the runoff by the current president Gabriel Boric. On that occasion, Kast achieved 44.13% of the vote, which was mainly from the right-wing parties.

Johannes Kaiser, meanwhile, has studied law and taken courses in philosophy, history and sociology at Chilean, German and Austrian universities, but without completing any degree. His paternal grandfather was a German social democratic immigrant who arrived in Chile in 1936 and married a descendant of German settlers. In 2021 he was elected deputy for the Republican Party, which he left definitively last year to create the National Libertarian Party, inspired by the example of the current Argentine president Javier Milei, who has said he would stand as a presidential candidate. He has been accused of misogyny, justified the assassinations of the Pinochet dictatorship and is ultra-conservative on moral issues.

Matthei and Kast were supporters of the military dictatorship and Pinochet's continuation for eight more years in the 1988 plebiscite. Kaiser was a child, but he has said that he justifies and admires Pinochet. Among these three candidates or the “German division”, so far at least, there is no agreement for a primary election or a single candidate. Kast has said he will go on the ballot hoping to draw in a sector of the right and Kaiser has indicated that if he reaches 20% in the polls, he will also accept the challenge. Both take votes away from Matthei, who seeks to represent a center-right that does not deny the past.

For his part, President Boric is in favor of a candidate who can bring together all the forces from the Communist Party to the Christian Democrats. The only person who could achieve that goal is former president Michelle Bachelet (73), who has already held the presidency twice (2006-10 and 2014-18), but has reiterated that she does not want to run for a third time. Despite her high popularity rating, the polls do not favor her today either, amid the discrediting of political parties in general, because she is a worn-out figure for some and because of the low approval rating of the current government, which stands at 29% (Plaza Pública, Cadem, February 2025).

A second candidate is Carolina Tohá (59), current Minister of the Interior, number two in the government, who represents an alternative of continuity and at the same time renewal, courage and leadership, but who would have to resign as minister if she decides to be a candidate and then we will see what the polls say, which do not favor her today. With a degree in law and a doctorate in political science from the University of Milan in Italy, she represents the reformist center left or social democracy. She has been a member of parliament, minister and spokesperson in Bachelet's second government, and mayor of Santiago.

The hard left, grouped in the Frente Amplio, as well as the Communist Party, must define a candidate to go to a broad primary with the center left or assume their own candidacies. It will not be easy because of the conflicting views in support of the dictatorships in Cuba, Venezuela, or Nicaragua, a heavy backpack that they carry and that the communists refuse to condemn. Today, President Boric, forcibly removed from the reality of revolutionary aspirations, understands the need for unity and reform to move forward and, above all, to build a broad parliamentary majority, which is essential for progress in the democratization of Chilean society.

Although the polls currently favor Matthei's candidacy, with 20% of voting intentions (Cadem, February 2025), the dispute for the leadership of the sector is in doubt due to Kast's persistence in not going to primaries, together with the rising growth of Kaiser in the polls, who is up to 10%, surpassing Kast, who reaches 9% (Cadem, January 2025). In general, the vote will be conditioned by two variables that the Boric government took a long time to address and that have eroded popular support: the rising violence and crime in the country's main cities and the massive immigration, which the collective imagination - with some justification - associates with violence. Both feed the growing feeling of insecurity that is spreading through Chile. As is the case in many countries today, vast sectors of the population, as well as the most vulnerable, will vote for those who have made these issues the central pillar of their discourse to attack the government of President Boric.

Chile will live through 2025 under the uncertainty of the world stage that could affect the Chilean economy if the unilateral measures of tariff application that govern through the weakened World Trade Organization (WTO) come to fruition. Added to this is President Trump's warning to apply the old law of the stick to align Latin American countries in a region that is disunited, fractured, without political dialogue between leaders where ideological positions prevail over regional interests. In this context, the presidential campaign in Chile will radicalize the extremes: on the one hand, the old Pinochetism that in one way or another will end up bringing the sector together, and on the other, a divided left that has shown how difficult it is to coexist in the current government.

The new generations, lacking role models and ideals, have been dazzled by social networks, “influencers”, brands, the millions of famous footballers and the money that drags some of them to populism in search of answers to their demands. The elections next November will be a small sample of the profound changes in Chilean society.