As the ages of time come and go, new economic and social orders replace outdated ones to meet the new needs of the time. Sometimes, there are dark ages and conflicts in between. Mercantilism came to replace feudalism during the Age of Exploration and European Colonization. Since the 18th century, liberal capitalism has dominated our global economic system. For a time, socialism and communism challenged liberalism during the height of the Industrial Age in the 20th century.

The end of the Cold War and the continuing embrace of market forces by China ended centralized planning while leaving the socialist experiment of a true worker-owned, democratic society unfinished. Since then, the liberal order of free market capitalism has been on a path of globalized expansion, market restructuring, integration, and economic shocks in the search for efficiency and profit taking.

Today, in the 21st century, the dominance of free market liberalism comes into question with the rise of angry populist movements, increasing inequality, increasing pollution, the planetary limits to growth, and new social needs coming from climate change. The public disillusionment with the status quo Obama-Biden-Merkle-style liberal democrats points to the need for something different. The writing on the wall tells us the days of liberal capitalism are likely ending. Liberalism will eventually end like the previous economic orders that came before it and will fade into something new. We are now moving out of the Industrial Age into an age of human-induced climate change, with AI and robots replacing labor. Social needs for sustainable decarbonized development and de-growth will demand the transition to a new economic “-ism” that has not yet taken shape.

The 2024 re-election of populist Donald Trump to the office of President of the United States presents a regressive twist to the development path of the next economic order. Instead of moving economic progress forward to something new or preserving the stagnant status quo, the second Trump administration seeks to travel back in time. Trump’s proposed ideas to “Make America Great Again” look something like before the liberal era in the 15th and 18th centuries. Trump’s plans appear to borrow from the nationalist and economic policies of mercantilism past.

As the leading economic power, the United States plays a critical role in the organization of the global economic system. Any major change in US economic policy has consequences for nations around the world. The rise of similar right-wing populist movements around the world may show we are moving toward a nostalgic detour of protectionism and isolationism before a new, more evolved internationalist cooperation can unfold to address the challenges of the climate change era. Things may get worse before they get better.

So, what about President Donald Trump? Before the elections, Democrats in the United States tried to paint him with several labels. They said he is a threat to democracy. They have called him a fascist and likened him to a Hitler figure. While not behaving as a fundamentalist Christian, his association with conservative evangelicals stokes fears of theocracy. Some scholars categorize Trump differently. In 2018, Yale scholar Jason Stanley said Trump uses the rhetorical communication style and techniques of historical fascists to motivate voters, but this is different from having a fascist government. University of Chicago scholar Eric Posner in 2024 says Trump is best described as what the ancient Greeks called a demagogue. In modern times, Trump is a populist disruptor of the status quo. He borrows ideas from previous eras to portray the perceived need to return to a nostalgic era of former American greatness after a decline brought to us by the liberal globalists. In a dramatic shift for US Republicans, Trump is making the case to end free markets.

President Trump’s economic restructuring ideas include massive federal budget cuts, a closed labor market (with a militarized border and mass deportations), and massive tariffs on imported goods to force policy changes on international competitors and to re-shore the production of goods to the United States. The trade and tariff policies resemble the characteristics of a formerly dominant economic “-ism” called mercantilism.

What are the main characteristics of Mercantilism?

Nationalism: The interests of the nation-state alone are paramount. Here, Trump advocates his America First before everything mantra. Historically, the use of colonies for wealth and resource extraction was key. Trump making jokes and claims to territory in Panama, Canada, and Greenland take on new and old meanings here.

Protectionism: More trade should go out than come into the nation-state, increasing the national balance of wealth. Steep tariffs prevent imports and free-market competition. Trump is floating ideas for massive tariffs on the largest US trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China.

Isolationism: The processing of raw materials originating in the nation-state is to be done within the nation-state to transform them into higher value finished goods for consumption within the nation-state. Trump’s tariffs are intended to bring manufacturing back to the homeland. Closing the border to foreign workers is the plan to open the door for better domestic employment opportunities for US nationals.

International competition: Nation-states are likely to engage in conflict over the control of raw materials, spheres of influence, and the domination of global monetary systems. Trump’s threats to BRICS over the intent to slowly de-dollarize global trade speak to the likely rise in international tensions to come.

What are the downsides of these regressive policies?

Many economists say Trump’s policies will increase the prices of goods with higher inflation and create shortages in products, services, and labor. The speed of Trump’s proposals to unwind decades of global integration within days, months, and years will present enormous economic shocks to restricting businesses, workers, and entire national economies. Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed policies do nothing to require employers to pay workers a living wage.

One alarming drawback to Trump’s regressive mercantilist ideas is the regression of the progress made during the last century on international cooperation. Trump’s threats to leave NATO, the World Health Organization, and the Paris Climate Accords speak to an “everyone is on their own” diplomacy. Threats and jokes made against Panama, Canada, and Greenland for territorial claims suggest a return to a US expansionist posture not seen since the Louisiana Purchase and the end of the Spanish-American war.

The liberal era had/has many flaws, but the increase in multilateral institutions to work collaboratively on social issues like the 1987 Montreal Protocol or the 1997 Ottawa Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty speaks to a continuum of progress toward a better future for global stakeholders. Economic interdependence in places like the European Union has caused nations to think twice about acting unilaterally in ways that may hurt the well-being of the greater community, promoting trade, peaceful coexistence, and freedom of movement.

An improved model over liberalism to meet the new challenges of the climate change era will require internationalist cooperation in a magnitude not previously seen in human history. While liberalism serves the interests of capital over workers, it has failed to address worker anger, inequality, climate change, or the hypocrisy of selectivity applied to international law in support of universal human rights. There is more work to do.

Trump’s MAGA reluctance to cooperate with others for common goals points to a period of reactionary self-interests and self-security. This jeopardizes the connected and interdependent global network of humanity. The new “-ism” we need to progress sustainable development is not the one Trump is returning to us with his backward mercantilist time machine of competing powers, border controls, tariffs, and brute force. Eventually, we will need to move forward beyond liberalism and mercantilism to solve modern problems.