Sri Lanka’s political landscape has witnessed a dramatic shift in recent years, culminating in the historic victory of the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition in the 2024 (presidential and parliamentary) elections. After over four decades of dominance by family-led political parties (Sri Lanka Freedom Party and United National Party), this change signals a break from the past and a potential new direction for the island nation, still reeling from the economic crisis and political upheaval of 2022. The victory of NPP and its leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, raises fundamental questions about the future of Sri Lanka’s democracy, governance, and economic recovery.

The collapse of the old order

The roots of this political transition can be traced back to the 2022 economic crisis, which pushed Sri Lanka to the brink of collapse. Widespread protests erupted, demanding accountability and political reform, primarily directed at the Rajapaksa family and their longstanding influence over the country’s governance. The demonstrations highlighted systemic corruption, mismanagement, and the country’s reliance on unsustainable economic policies. Public dissatisfaction with traditional political parties—especially the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the United National Party (UNP)—was at an all-time high.

In the wake of this disillusionment, the NPP emerged as a credible alternative. The coalition, led by the new President Dissanayake, a prominent figure from the Marxist-Leninist JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), capitalized on the public’s demand for drastic change. The NPP’s rise is a repudiation of the dynastic politics that had governed Sri Lanka for decades, a political system often criticized for perpetuating corruption, nepotism, and economic inequality.

A shift toward reform

The NPP's success is rooted in its promise to overhaul the political system. President Dissanayake’s leadership represents a departure from the conventional political elite, with many voters seeing him as someone who can break the cycle of misgovernance that has plagued Sri Lanka. The party’s victory, particularly in a fragmented and disillusioned electorate, suggests that a significant portion of the population is seeking reforms in governance, transparency, and economic policy.

The NPP’s manifesto emphasizes progressive ideals, including a commitment to tackling corruption, implementing new economic policies to reduce public debt, and improving social services. The party’s promise to maintain Sri Lanka’s engagement with international organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while providing economic relief to ordinary citizens resonates with many looking for a balanced path toward recovery. However, President Dissanayake faces the monumental challenge of navigating Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic crisis, which includes high inflation, unemployment, and a staggering national debt.

The end of dynastic politics?

One of the most striking elements of the 2024 election is the defeat of the political dynasties that have shaped Sri Lankan politics for generations. The Rajapaksa family, which has controlled much of Sri Lanka’s political apparatus for decades, suffered a significant blow with the NPP’s rise. Despite a failed bid by Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, to contest the election, the Rajapaksas’ political fortunes have waned dramatically. This shift marks the end of an era where family connections and patronage networks dominated the country's governance, and it reflects a growing desire among voters for a political system that values merit over lineage.

This transition also challenges the longstanding power dynamics between the two major parties, the UNP and SLFP, whose influence has been severely weakened by the electorate’s demand for change. The success of the NPP signals a shift in Sri Lanka’s political paradigm, where a new wave of leaders is taking charge, unencumbered by the baggage of past political legacies.

Addressing ethnic and regional divides

Despite the NPP’s promise of reform, its rise is not without challenges. Sri Lanka remains deeply divided along ethnic and regional lines, with the Tamil and Muslim communities often feeling marginalized by the political establishment. President Dissanayake’s JVP background, criticized for its past stance on the Tamil issue, maybe a potential roadblock to gaining widespread support from the Tamil community. However, the NPP has promised to pursue devolution policies and greater autonomy for regional governments, which could appeal to these communities.

President Dissanayake will have to balance the need for national unity with the demands of Sri Lanka's minority groups for greater political and cultural recognition. The complex realities of Sri Lanka’s ethnic and religious diversity will likely test his commitment to introducing a new constitution and engaging in a more inclusive political dialogue.

The path forward: opportunities and risks

As Sri Lanka moves into this new political phase, there is hope and skepticism surrounding the NPP’s ability to deliver on its promises. The country’s economic challenges remain severe, and while the NPP has pledged to reform the financial system, the road to recovery is fraught with risks. President Dissanayake’s success will depend not only on his ability to govern but also on managing Sri Lanka’s relations with international financial institutions and navigating the country’s foreign policy in an increasingly polarized global environment.

The shift in political power could also lead to a more transparent and accountable governance model. Still, it will require a concerted effort to dismantle entrenched systems of corruption and patronage. The NPP’s ability to maintain its political momentum and implement its reforms will likely depend on how well it addresses the key issues of governance, ethnic relations, and economic stability.