A time must come for any self-considered political journalist to talk about Donald Trump. For non-Americans, like yours truly, writing about U.S. politics will always be considered polarizing. A non-American is either anti-American or pro-American but never neutral. Apologies but I am not about to leave a written record of my stance. The coming four years of the second Trump administration will have plenty of polarizing headlines and tweets. You will find none of that clickbait here. Once again, apologies for trying to be impartial.

It is expected for a Hispanic like me to be quite dismissive of El Trumpo because his immigration policy targets the heavy flow of asylum seekers coming in from the southern border. But what if the number one voice in foreign policy is Hispanic?

The appointment of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State opens the door for a more engaged foreign policy towards Latin America. The senior senator for Florida is of Cuban origin and is seen as a “hawk” in D.C. circles for his voting record on Latin American issues. Rubio is pro-embargo, pro-sanctions, and regularly endorses and salutes right-wing candidates like Bolsonaro, Bukele, and Milei. Despite being largely seen as niche and holding cold war views that are only relevant in South Florida, his appointment will give larger relevance to him and Latin America.

As probably the American politician with the most Latin American entry stamps on his passport, Rubio’s knowledge of the region is unmatched. Not for nothing does he sit on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Select Committee on Intelligence. Fully bilingual in English and Spanish, his personal connections with the top circles of policy-making across Latin American governments ensure a smooth communication channel for robust multilateral policy needs.

The state of the States in LatAm

Truth be told (always), the U.S. has largely forgotten Latin America in the past two administrations. Trump 1.0 limited his LatAm engagement to a NAFTA revision, now called USMCA. If Trump 1.0 was not engaged with LatAm, Biden, well, what can I tell you? He had a pandemic to work through and then his reelection campaign fiasco so nope, not much to do south of the border.

This lack of interest in Latin America generated a number of issues that are now potential items on the agenda. For example, American FDI has been receding and that of non-U.S.-allies like China has been significantly on the rise. Most notably, China has gained a strong foothold in the region, especially with its global infrastructure program that has built gas pipelines in Argentina, subway lines in Colombia, and ports in Peru. The vacuum left in what once was America’s backyard has now been filled up with people who dislike Washington. And the loss of economic relevance produces a lack of political-diplomatic relevance. In the last 10 years, the countries that have ceased to recognize Taiwan and established ties with Communist China have been mostly in Central America and have experienced drastic increases in Chinese FDI. This, however, could represent a bargaining card for both US and LatAm countries now that nearshoring is a major buzzword used when discussing hemispheric relations.

The other aspect that has dominated U.S.-LatAm relations is immigration policy. Although domestic in nature, it can be enforced from the countries of origin and with multiple pro-America governments in the region. Both past administrations engaged in talks to reduce the flow of asylum seekers and illegal border crossings. Trump said what we all know he said and everyone remembers Vice President Harris’ famous “do not come” moment in Guatemala. Trade and border issues were as active as both of the last administrations ever got to be in LatAm affairs.

What key issues must be addressed in these four years? Judging from his first term, an isolationist and inward-looking administration is to be expected. Trump campaigned on domestic issues and the only major foreign policy items that have been discussed include the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the ever unstable Middle East. However, the appointment of Rubio offers a sliver of hope for Latin America to be held more highly in the foreign policy agenda since he has a lot to say about the current state of the region. As Secretary of State, he could delegate Russian, Chinese, and Middle Eastern affairs to seasoned diplomats and experts on those subjects while taking a hands-on approach to deal with his field of expertise. The issues he is most expected to tackle are notably business presence, hemispheric security, and refugees.

Business presence

Well, of course. Latin America is not precisely known for its abundance of capital and FDI is always given a warm welcome. Since American investment has gone down in the region, many have looked towards China and naturally, since China offers loans and is hungry to consume, why not accept their terms when in need of money? Even pro-American leaders like Argentina's Javier Milei have stated they will continue to trade with the Chinese. Latin Americans love to use dollars to close deals but dogma goes out the window when taking a look at the balance books.

It will be very hard to combine the protectionist stance of Trump’s economic line when Americans reappear in Latin America asking for tax benefits to incorporate new companies or open factories. Here is when the nearshoring potential of Latin America can be used to haggle. The supply chain and logistics hubs of Latin America are all designed for exports going into the United States and it would be a shame if the American market decided to be more selective about who they conduct their business with. A shrewd negotiator would know how to use FTAs, special economic zones, and USAID initiatives to increase business presence in developing countries. The ball is in your court, Señor Rubio.

Hemispheric security

Hemispheric security depends on the close vigilance and containment of the self-avowed anti-America governments of the region. While these are mainly the three stooges of Latin America — Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela — there are others that continue to rev up their anti-America rhetoric like Honduras and Bolivia.

The anti-America practices that these countries engage in include serving as bases for espionage and covert bases for drug trade operations. The presence of Hamas militants and the protection of drug lords exporting to the US has been noted in these regions. In the specific case of Venezuela, the past administrations have been openly against the Maduro regime and increased sanctions are expected. Finally, on to Cuba — and by finally I mean for the past 65 years. Cuba has been a high-priority issue for the State Department regardless of the party in office. Obama 2.0 decided to thaw relations between both countries and even personally visited the island, displeasing Rubio. Trump, however, re-broke diplomatic relations, pleasing Rubio. Biden, re-reestablished relations, re-displeasing Rubio. This constant switching of policy towards Cuba is expected to continue as Trump has announced ending the parole program for Cubans. Extra sanctions strengthening the embargo are also expected since Trump and Rubio are both pro-embargo.

Refugee crisis

As more and more asylum seekers reach the southern border, the need to engage Latin American countries to find a solution grows. This view is shared by close allies like President Bukele of El Salvador and President Noboa of Ecuador. The alignment of values of different countries in the region would simplify issues around the Darien Gap and Central America. Finding solutions in the countries of origin is the natural first step to curtail the refugee crisis since it deals with the root cause.

More attention will be paid to the refugee crisis because it touches on multiple fronts. Not just as a divisive issue that rallies voters but also because drug trade and security are involved in the refugee crisis. The fentanyl trade is controlled entirely by Mexican gangs that ship via the southern border. A stronger surveillance of the border would contain illegal crossings and drug shipments. The intertwining of crime and asylum-seekers is notorious and the routes through Central America and the Darien are controlled by extortionist human traffickers. Their reach has been extended to the point that the feared Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua is already confirmed to be openly operating in New York City.

Final thoughts

The multidimensional approach needed for the foreign policy on Latin America asks for major attention and resources. Could we see a return to big stick policy to curtail illegal immigration? Is a Monroe Doctrine approach in the works to curb Chinese investment and prevent developing countries from aligning with China? How cordial will the relations with Mexico and Brazil be? The heavyweights of the region have center-left progressives in Sheinbaum and Da Silva as presidents. Their cooperation is essential to keep skilled labor and capital in the region. A very sensible approach is required when major commitments are needed, as is the case, which will prove to be a challenge for the brash and bold reputation of Trump &Co.

Finally and, entirely in the political realm, these four years as Secretary of State must be seen as marking an electoral shift as well as the defining moment of Marco Rubio’s political career. The political capital of Rubio is on the line. With this appointment, he is going under national scrutiny while also being tasked with establishing a solid Hispanic voter base in the GOP besides the standard South Florida voters. How will a textbook, immigrant family, Miami Cuban like Rubio face the nation when his voter base has basically been only in South Florida? Now we will see how efficient of a leader Rubio is when on the national stage and not just in the Great State of Florida. No one goes back to being a Senator after being Secretary of State — that is a demotion. If he can manage to awaken the so-called sleeping giant of the Hispanic voters, Rubio can only go up from here, either becoming Vice President and then President, or going straight to President. For his first candidacy in 2016, he was seen as too young and inexperienced. As the Hispanic face of the GOP and, taking into account shifting demographics, the GOP should be testing the waters for targeting voters in future elections.

Once again, remaining impartial when talking about U.S. politics or any politics is impossibly difficult but I do want what is best for my corner of the world. So thanks for reading.

Thank you, God bless you, and God Bless (Latin) America.