In my last piece before the November 5, 2024, U.S. presidential election, my thesis was, “Who knows who is going to win.” With Donald Trump’s victory, the only certainty is that America will become vastly more unpredictable. This article explores this reality.

The 2024 Trump and Republican Party victory

Donald Trump’s November 2024 election triumph was not an overwhelming electoral mandate. In fact, this election was quite close. Suggestions that Trump’s victory is an “unprecedented and powerful” mandate to govern or a “landslide” victory are not supported by the facts. Trump garnered a reported 76.9 million votes to Harris’ 74.4 million in the popular vote (or 49.9% to 48.3%). As a comparison, Trump’s 76.9 million votes in 2024 were less than Joe Biden’s 81.3 million votes in 2020. However, Republicans also won several more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate to capture the majority in both chambers. Thus, Republicans will control all three branches of the U.S. government. The last time the Republican Party controlled the U.S. Senate, House, and presidency was from January 20, 2017, to January 3, 2019… when Donald Trump was president.

However, the last five U.S. presidents have all had timeframes where both the House and the Senate were in control by their political party. Most of those “trifecta” timeframes endured for a mere two years before American voters changed the equation. Why? One political party possessing the trifecta in Washington inspires the controlling party to aggressively push policy agendas which make it very challenging for those in the other party to support the proposed legislative and policy agenda.

U.S. Domestic Policy and what the trifecta indicates for the incoming 2025 Trump Administration

One tangible difference for the incoming Trump administration in 2025 versus other previous incoming U.S. administrations that held the trifecta at the onset of their term is preparation. The Republican party (and Trump) in the U.S. have been preparing their 2025 policy agenda since Trump was defeated in 2020. In 2022, a U.S. based conservative-leaning think tank, The Heritage Foundation, enlisted 140 former Trump staffers (and a few hundred conservative organisations) to contribute to Project 2025—a roadmap for implementing strategic right wing ideals. It is also a document that is intended to provide Trump with an agenda and action plan to implement at the outset of his upcoming term. Since its publication, the document has produced an outcry of debate in the U.S. Trump has publicly stated his resounding support for the project, then retracted the same as public concerns about the policy proposals contained therein came to light.

A few of the major policy proposals of Project 2025 that Trump continues to endorse include:

  • Secure the U.S. southern border with Mexico. Stop illegal immigration into the U.S. (Translation: implement punitive tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico’s exports to the U.S. as a method to persuade these two countries to bolster their efforts to reduce the production and distribution of fentanyl to U.S. consumers; develop methodologies to identify Mexican drug cartel production facilities and utilise U.S. military force to destroy the same in Mexico)

  • Identify and deport millions of undocumented immigrants currently residing in the U.S. (Translation: this includes entire families, women, and children; use U.S. law enforcement personnel throughout the country in this effort—this may also involve the use of state National Guard and U.S. military personnel)

  • Increase U.S. oil production. (Translation: withdraw from a plethora of pacts that Biden has approved regarding the climate crisis. Reduce regulations and expand licensing for more fossil fuel production including geographic regions where said production is currently prohibited, and fast track the licensing for more liquefied natural gas export terminals—to name just a few)

  • Make budgetary cuts in federal agencies, eliminate others, reduce staff, and reduce the size of the U.S. government. (Translation: reduce federal regulations regarding the environment; exit the Paris climate accord; restructure, redefine, and reorganise the Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and Department of the Interior)

  • Re-engineer the U.S. civil service system that currently protects employees of agencies in the U.S. government. (Translation: remove those who may not appear to be loyal to the perspectives of the U.S. president and Republican controlled Congress)

  • Increase the accountability and oversight of the FBI and DOJ (Translation: Make them vastly less independent and increasingly attentive to the whims of the US president and Republican controlled Congress).

What can one expect? Other than the above, you are likely to see Trump and his MAGA Republican supporters to continue to assault the legitimacy of the rights of the disadvantaged, disabled, citizens who are enrolled in health care coverage provided by the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act, senior citizens who depend upon Social Security and Medicare, non-white peoples, labour, ethnic groups, women, and LGBTQ persons. Expect Trump to implement more tax advantages for the wealthy (more tax cuts that increase the U.S. debt). Expect Trump to issue pardons to dozens of convicted insurrectionists who attempted to compromise the peaceful transfer of power after the U.S. election on January 6, 2021. Expect Trump to withdraw from the World Health Organisation (again). Expect numerous investigations initiated by the various agencies and committees of the U.S. government to focus on critics and organisations who are perceived as opponents of Trump and his minions.

It is reasonable to expect Trump to use the resources of the federal government (FBI and DOJ) to monitor his domestic critics and opponents. Expect revenge actions against these persons and bodies—including media outlets. Expect the Trump administration to attempt to employ local, state, and federal resources to quash civil unrest and/or protests that may arise in the U.S. during his term. Expect more state restrictions on abortion. Expect even more draconian voting rights restrictions to be implemented by dozens of states, designed to diminish the population of eligible voters in the U.S.—targeting populations that are typically supporters of the democrat party in the U.S.

Trump adviser Jason Miller has stated: “This first 100 days is going to be nonstop. There are so many things that he’s ready to do. Because, again, we’ve never had a second-term president step in that is ready to go. In fact, we’ve never had a first-term president, never had president in history who’s so ready to go on day one.” (emphasis is mine). As I said in the introductory sentence to this section, preparation is the fundamental difference for the beginning of the 2025 Trump presidency versus the outset of his 2016 term (that he did not expect to win).

The above provides a mere taste of the domestic policy agenda the USA, and the world, can expect from the outset by the 2025 Trump administration. However, when it comes to international agenda, things become quite murky very quickly.

U.S. Foreign Policy and what the trifecta indicates for the incoming 2025 Trump Administration

Of course, there are obvious, high priority international issues that Trump has made public pronouncements about since his previous term as president ended, during his campaign for the 2024 presidential election, and since his win on November 5, 2024. Among these are:

  • Ukraine: Trump says he can stop the war in 24 hours. Really?

  • China: Trump says he will impose up to 25% tariffs on exports to the U.S.? Really? What about the negative economic impacts on the U.S. consumer and broader U.S. economy? What about China’s ongoing saber rattling toward Taiwan?

  • Mexico/Canada: Trump says he will impose 25% tariffs on exports to the U.S.? Really? Again, the deleterious economic impacts? He intends to implement a new strategy to identify Mexican drug cartel production facilities and utilise U.S. military force to destroy the same in Mexico—contrary to the wishes of the government of Mexico). Really?

  • Israel: unequivocal support for whatever Netanyahu decides to do. Really?

  • Iran: never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons capability. How does this happen without military intervention to eviscerate the same? Really?

  • North Korea: will Trump’s self-confessed love affair with Kin Jong Un continue? What about North Korea’s ever evolving intercontinental ballististic missile capability? What about North Korea’s supply of troops and weaponry to Russia for use against Ukraine? Love affair? Really?

  • Russia: will Trump’s love affair with Putin continue? Will he withdraw the current U.S. sanctions on Russia? Will Russia be required to provide the financial resources to rebuild Ukraine?

  • NATO: will Trump withdraw or diminish the essential U.S. support for NATO?

  • The climate crisis: he doesn’t believe there is one. Really?

The transition to the 2025 Trump Administration

Trump’s assault on democracy and the historical norms of governance in the U.S. will be empowered and directed by a ‘crony cabinet'; by loyalists, donors, supporters, and dutiful stooges rather than persons eminently qualified to run the core institutions and agencies of the U.S. government. Experience and legitimate qualifications will take a backseat to blind loyalty to Trump. Trump runs with his gut.

This has been on full display for the lasts several weeks as Trump has begun the process of publicly nominating people to fill the essential federal government cabinet posts. (Translation: these are the people designated to run the massive agencies of the U.S. government. Almost all are unequivocally unqualified to lead these fundamentally essential functions of the U.S. government.)

Trump nominated Matt Gaetz to be attorney general of the United States. 8 days later, due to revelations brought to light by the media, Gaetz was gone. Trump’s nomination of Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News host, as U.S. Secretary of Defense is in peril due to Hegseth’s track record of mistreatment of women and his use of alcohol. Trump’s nominee for the position of Director of National Intelligence is a former congresswoman, Tulsi Gabbard. Her qualifications: she has had two stints in the U.S. military in Iraq and Kuwait and as a member of Hawaii’s national Guard.

For FBI Director, Trump has nominated lackey Kash Patel. One observer states: “It would be nearly impossible for someone like Patel, who has limited management experience, to operate effectively.” Trump’s initial pick to head the Drug Enforcement Administration was Chad Chronister, a Florida sheriff, who withdrew his nomination several days later. Chronister’s wife is Nicole DeBartolo. She’s the daughter of Edward DeBartolo Jr—her dad former owner of the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers. During Trump’s first term, he granted Edward DeBartolo Jr. a presidential pardon (quid pro quo anyone?). It just goes on and on and on.

What is clear is that those “adults in the room” during Trump’s first term will be nowhere to be found during this, his second. Trump’s “mistake” during his first term was appointing qualified people to populate these essential leadership roles. They were also willing to disagree with him. During Trump’s first term in office, the turnover in the executive office of the president and cabinet posts were unprecedented in the history of a U.S. presidency. During Trump’s upcoming term, he is populating these positions with people definitely unqualified for the role(s), with qualifications now redefined as unconditional loyalty to Trump—no matter what. One author has remarked: “It seems to be trend throughout history that those who rise to power with authoritarian platforms demand loyalty from their followers but often give none in return. As soon as it is the slightest bit inconvenient, the dictator will cull, imprison, or banish the most ardent supporters.”

This is more than problematic. Why? As the debates rage regarding the decline of democracy in America and the ineffectiveness of the federal government writ large, (including installing Elon Musk as the overseer of the newly announced Department of Government Efficiency), the early indications are that both democratic principles and government efficiency will be further degraded during Trump 2.o. Leon van Vuuren is the Executive Director: Business and Professional Ethics at The Ethics Institute. He holds a Doctorate of Industrial Psychology from the University of Johannesburg. In a piece entitled, Loyalty: A Destructive Comfort Zone, he makes some poignant observations pertinent to Trump 2.0:

“Loyalty automatically precludes the undermining of other, perhaps greater values. When loyalty is blind and causes harm to a subject beyond the immediate beneficiaries, it needs to be questioned. Blind loyalty distorts reasoning. There are numerous destructive outcomes of blind loyalty. In terms of broader moral implications, the net outcome is, however, gross cronyism and nepotism that is often even defended as being morally acceptable. Groupthink as an outcome of distorted loyalty leads to decisions with unethical consequences. Mediocrity is accepted as the norm and incompetence is tolerated. The gist of blind loyalty is that loyalists reserve the right to have a non-exclusive relationship with justice, fairness, and the truth.1

Expect the unexpected

Bestselling author Michael Lewis penned a sentence that may characterise Trump 2.0. Lewis writes: “We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible because we are unable to imagine any chain of events that could cause it to occur. The defect, often, is in our imagination.”2

There are clearly more questions than answers populating world affairs today. How will the Trump administration deal with these issues? The answer to that question is yet to be seen. However, one thing that you can be absolutely certain of is to expect the unexpected. Trump has demonstrated his adoration of absolute power, oligarchs, loyalists, sycophants, the spotlight, narcissism, deflection of personal accountability, ego, disdain for norms, belittling others, propensity for conflict, controversy, an elevated appreciation for the need for vengeance, a lifetime of episodes of immoral and unsavoury conduct, and the inability to embrace honesty. Perhaps the most fundamental issue with Trump is his inability to listen to others—particularly those who have views contrary to his own. He doesn’t learn, read reports, briefings, or books. He is malleable and has a propensity to be influenced by flattery. He is superbly designed to be used by leaders around the global he currently admires. He can be duped.

He goes with his gut. He is unequivocally unpredictable. With the preparation Trump and his movement have accomplished for his term beginning January 2025, the world and the USA will become distinctly different over the next 4 years. We will all be affected in one way or another. Expect a raucous ride.

Hoping for the best may be wishful thinking, at best. Expect the intensity of tumultuous turmoil within the U.S. to intensify during the next 4 years. As Trump’s administration is required to turn their attention to domestic matters and challenges with day-today governance issues (including Trump 2.0 administration personnel turnover), it is distinctly possible to lose focus on pressing, emerging, and evolving international issues. Expect the U.S. stature in the world to continue to decline. Just as the unimaginable reality of the Covid-19 epidemic arose and shocked the conscience of the world during Trump’s last term, expect significant, unanticipated events to arise that rearrange the landscape of reality during his next.

It’s Trump 2.0. Here we go!

Notes

1 Leon van Vuuren, Loyalty: A Destructive Comfort Zone - The Ethics Institute, March 18, 2021.
2 Michael Lewis, The Undoing Project – A Friendship that Changed Our Minds, Copyright © 2017 by Michael Lewis, W.W. Norton & Company New York, NY pp. 194-195.