The return of Donald Trump as President of the United States of America is a huge tectonic change with global implications. In what is probably the greatest political comeback in recent history, Donald Trump overcame obstacles, legal cases, assassination attempts, and a massive malign campaign of trial by allegation in the American media to decisively win the American presidential election on November 5. He will probably be the first American President since John F. Kennedy who is not a representative of the American security establishment, or “Deep State.” He will, therefore, not follow the traditional Washington Playbook on foreign policy.

To understand the implications of the Trump victory, it is important to know where Trump is coming from. He is basically a businessman, a deal maker, whose most famous book is The Art of the Deal. He is not a cold warrior, and it would not be surprising if he tries to reverse the expansion of NATO and also probably retreat on the ambitious and aggressive overextended ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy,’ which involves cobbling together alliances like QUAD and AUKUS. He is not ideological, unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, who tried to frame a new cold war on an ideological premise of “democracy vs. autocracy.” And he will not be militaristic in his vision of foreign policy, which focuses on a more economy-centric, businesslike approach based on his “America First” worldview.

He will not be one to start wars, foment fighting in Asia and Europe, or provoke unnecessary conflicts or confrontations. So perhaps, after a quarter of a century of internecine warfare, the world will be calmer, more stable, and perhaps even more peaceful, for starters, under a Trump administration. The top three foreign policy priorities of President Trump’s administration would be ending the war in Ukraine, achieving peace in the Middle East, and coping with competition with China.

What is also commendable is the graceful and dignified role of American leadership in the smooth and peaceful transition after a divisive political campaign. President Trump called for the “healing of wounds,” Kamala Harris gracefully accepted defeat, and President Biden called for the “lowering of the political temperature.” The Pentagon chief, General Austin, publicly proclaimed that the United States administration would “stand ready to carry out the policy choices of its next commander-in-chief and to obey all lawful orders from its specific chain of command.”

A number of analysts and friends, both in Pakistan and the US, have been asking me how I was confident and consistent for the past year in predicting the victory of Donald Trump in the American presidential election. I gave three reasons for my consistent view that President Trump would prevail politically. The first quality in any politician is courage and the ability to survive and surmount difficulties. In this regard, President Trump demonstrated resilience, despite facing the highest number of cases in American history against any former president.

In this regard, he reminds me of an inspiring quote from President Richard Nixon: “You do not lose when you are defeated; you lose out when you quit.” Trump didn’t quit! Second, throughout the four-year period after he lost to Biden up until his election on November 5, 2024, President Trump not only did not give up, but he also retained and enhanced his popular base. His message resonated not only with his base but also with a larger segment of the American population, which ensured his victory on November 5, giving him not only the electoral college but also a popular vote lead of over 5 million.

Finally, the alternative to Trump was weak, whether Biden or Kamala Harris, with a poor track record and an inability to craft a message for the American people that explained how they would be better or different than Trump. In the end, when Trump persistently asked voters “whether you are better today or before,” the answer was predictable, and President Trump was able to promote the perception that he would be a stronger and more decisive leader at a time when Americans themselves have lost confidence in their own institutions within the context of a turbulent and transformed world.