In numerous European countries, the far right is experiencing a surge in popularity, with climate change policies becoming a central point of contention in many political arenas. A considerable number of these right political forces consider the green energy transition as an excessively ambitious objective of the European Union. They contend that the current climate regulations place a considerable financial burden on citizens and industries, attributing the rise in inflation and the elevated costs of business and living to the necessity of meeting emission targets. Could the increased representation of far-right parties in the European Parliament result in a slower pace of decision-making and, consequently, a delay in the implementation of the Green Deal? This article examines the factors contributing to the recent surge in support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, its implications for German and European politics, and the potential consequences for climate policies.

The AfD's electoral gains: a challenge for Germany's coalition government

To gain a deeper understanding of the broader European context, it is now possible to examine the specific case of Germany, where the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party highlights the challenges facing the coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The German electorate's decision to vote for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party illustrates a pervasive malaise within society. The far-right party's electoral success poses a significant challenge to the coalition government led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, coming just one year before federal elections scheduled for September 2025. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has been accused of climate denial, is currently polling at 30% in some regions.1 These gains are sufficient for far-right parties to shift the center ground of climate efforts even in the absence of an outright political victory. Despite the absence of Alternative for Germany (AfD) representation in the national government, the party's influence has been discernible at the regional and local levels and the long-term trend indicates a growing support base for anti-establishment, populist, and Eurosceptic parties at both the European and national levels.

During the course of their political campaign, the right-wing party has made opposition to climate and energy policies a central tenet of their campaign platform. For instance, the AfD has campaigned against the transition to renewable energy, arguing that it would have adverse economic consequences and be unaffordable for the average citizen. Their climate protection policy is characterized by a clear dichotomy: the party endorses the utilization of fossil fuels and nuclear energy, while opposing the deployment of wind power.

AfD's climate stance

Central to the AfD's appeal is its staunch opposition to climate and energy policies, which has become a cornerstone of their campaign platform. Their position on climate policy is perceived as resonating with voters who are concerned about economic stability. Without wishing to generalize, it can be observed that voters for the AfD tend to espouse a conservative mindset, exhibit a fear of change, and display skepticism toward innovations, perceiving them as financially burdensome. The party has the greatest success among middle-aged men residing in small towns2.

In the event of an economic downturn or crisis, the arguments of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party against costly climate measures gain significant traction. This is because the party posits that economic stability should take precedence over environmental concerns, potentially influencing public opinion and policy decisions.

It is widely acknowledged that during periods of economic decline, the electorate tends to prioritize economic stability over environmental protection. Therefore, they may choose to prioritize short-term economic relief over long-term environmental initiatives. Germany's economic performance is not without imperfections, and the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) reflects a profound public unease and a lack of confidence in the German government's ability to effectively navigate the country's current economic challenges.

Economic stability vs. environmental concerns: the AfD's appeal

Economic stagnation constitutes a significant contributing factor to public discontent. The energy crisis, which was precipitated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, had a significant impact on Germany, given the country's high dependence on Russian natural gas, which constituted a substantial portion of its energy supply. The situation, which resulted in sanctions being imposed on Russian gas and a significant increase in energy prices, led to consumer dissatisfaction, a considerable rise in the cost of living, and prompted the government to consider transitioning to renewable energy sources.

In Germany, state-initiated investments in wind, solar, and hydrogen technologies were made with the objective of reducing dependence on fossil fuels. This transition toward green energy, however, has encountered substantial resistance, including from the above mentioned right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Indeed, the AfD has advocated for the termination of the decarbonization project known as Energiewende 3 and the nullification of the German government's Climate Protection Plan 2050.

The potential for climate policy progress to be impeded or even reversed by robust opposition from parties such as the AfD is a significant concern, with implications that extend well beyond the borders of Germany. The opposition to climate policies represents a significant concern that has implications at the European level that extend beyond the boundaries of German society. Indeed, as a major economy, Germany's climate policies have a significant impact on global climate efforts.

A shift towards less ambitious climate policies could have the effect of weakening global climate action, as other countries might be encouraged to reduce their own commitments. If, amid the ongoing internal debates and disputes, Germany is unable to achieve its self-imposed climate targets, it may lose credibility and suffer reputational damage, potentially complicating its efforts to persuade other countries to adopt stringent measures. Failure to achieve the targets and a lack of commitment to the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which necessitates a sustained effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, has the potential to significantly impact the effectiveness of global climate initiatives. Indeed, opposition to climate measures by the AfD may impede Germany's capacity to achieve its approved targets for emission reductions under the Paris Agreement. Such non-compliance may result in diplomatic consequences.

Furthermore, the unpredictability of German political stability may have implications for foreign policy decisions, as it is uncertain whether the current government will retain its position. Such an unstable situation may result in an increased influence of far-right political groups in the European Parliament, which could subsequently impact the progression of climate-related legislation.

Global ramifications: how the AfD's policies could impact international climate efforts

In view of the considerable difficulties currently being experienced by the government, it is of the utmost importance for the German population to embrace a more transparent and compelling alternative that offers a compelling vision for the future. In light of the current economic downturn in Germany, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which includes the production of electric machines, it would be prudent for the government to consider strategic public investments in order to mitigate the potential for discontent among the population and the subsequent rise in votes for extreme parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Without sufficient government investment in renewable and alternative energy, technological advancement and economic growth will be constrained, which will ultimately impact Germany's long-term competitiveness in the global market. This will have implications not only for Germany's position in the global market but also for its economic partnerships.

Partners involved in renewable energy projects may reconsider their involvement with Germany, given uncertainty about the country's leading position in climate change policy. Furthermore, investors may choose to redirect their investments to countries where green policies are more rigorously implemented. This will also dissuade investors from investing in Germany based on the country's climate policy direction. This will further exacerbate the country's already challenging economic situation, potentially leading to increased public discontent and a heightened risk of support for far-right political movements.

The situation is undoubtedly one with multiple, interrelated consequences that must be taken into account when making decisions. The aforementioned speculations have the potential to unfold in a cascading manner. They are, at their core, exercises in speculation. They require an understanding of imagination, cause and effect theory, and futuristic scenarios. It is possible that they may be incorrect. However, regardless of their veracity, they should be taken into consideration as the government develops its positions on climate policy, green energy investments, and future plans.

As a concluding remark on the article, it should be noted that the implementation of climate policies is not solely dependent on the actions of the right-wing party. Macroeconomic structures also play a pivotal role in determining whether such policies are followed and respected. However, the power that some parties have demonstrated in blocking certain climate policies, as previously mentioned in the article, may present challenges to the realization of a more sustainable future.

References

1 Politico Poll of Polls — German polls, trends and election news for Germany, Politico, accessed 7 September 2024.
2 Rechte Wähler: Das sind die Millionen, die AfD wählen wollen | Zeit Online, accessed 7 September 2024.
3 At the heart of the Energiewende is a goal to cut emissions at least 80 per cent by 2050.