Conflict escalation in the Middle East 2024

Earlier, Israel killed Hezbollah's most senior commander in an airstrike on Beirut on July 30, 2024. The killing was in retaliation for a cross-border rocket attack that killed 12 persons earlier in occupied Golan Heights. Hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel continue unabated but have mostly been limited to the frontier region. Both Hezbollah and Israel have previously shown they do not seek a wider confrontation even though there have been concerns about an outbreak of war.

Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas leader, was killed early on July 31, 2024, in an attack in Tehran while attending the inauguration ceremony of Iran's newly elected president. As expected, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hamas have both blamed Israel for it. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said on July 31, 2024, that avenging Haniyeh's killing is Iran's “duty because it occurred in the Iranian capital”. He said Israel had provided the grounds for “harsh punishment” for itself¹.

On August 1, 2024, Khamenei again said that it was “our duty to seek revenge for his blood” as the attack was on Iranian soil. The US media have quoted Iranian officials as saying Khamenei has ordered a direct attack against Israel².

Meanwhile, the international community, however, called for de-escalation and a focus on securing a ceasefire in Gaza on August 1, 2024. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the strikes in Tehran and Beirut stood for a “dangerous escalation.” All efforts, he said, should be “leading to a ceasefire” in Gaza and the release of hostages taken during Hamas’s October 7 attack. The United Nations Security Council also held an emergency meeting at Iran’s request to discuss the strike. Abdulrahman Al-Thani, prime minister of Qatar said “Haniyeh’s killing had thrown the whole mediation process into doubt. How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?

As expected, on July 31, 2024, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey, Qatar, Yemen, Tunisia, among others, all condemned the assassination of the Hamas chief. Hezbollah has also claimed Haniyeh’s killing will increase ‘resistance fighters' resolve, and Iran says Israel will 'pay a great price' and vows a 'harsh and painful response' to Haniyeh's assassination.

Much earlier, the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel which resulted in the deaths of 1,197 persons, mostly civilians. Hamas also seized 251 hostages, 111 of whom are still held captive in Gaza, including 39 dead. There is now great concern in Israel over the fate of those still held in Gaza. By August 1, 2024, the war death toll had risen to 39,480 and 91,128 people had been wounded. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas in retaliation for the October 7 attack³. About 1.9 million people in the Gaza Strip have been repeatedly displaced by the Israeli military’s continuous attacks and the enclave has now been virtually destroyed because of the 10-month war.

Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza is now critical with hopes of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire diminishing. What next? The two incidents could trigger a major escalation that could inflame the Middle East. At the least, they will be a major setback to the Gaza ceasefire talks. Meanwhile, Israel’s aim to destroy Hamas will prove unachievable. Also, the killing of the leaders of Hezbollah will create a popular backlash as the Arab and Muslim people only turn to more support for these movements.

The only country that can pressure Israel to agree to a ceasefire is the US. But the Biden administration has failed to act when it was needed. It has been distracted by domestic political issues and is not expected now to pressure Netanyahu for a ceasefire in Gaza. All the months of efforts by the Biden administration, Qatar, and Egypt will be wasted. US Secretary Blinken said on July 31, 2024, that the Gaza ceasefire is 'imperative', after Hamas chief killing. He called on “all parties” in the Middle East to “stop escalatory actions” on August 1, 2024.

These pious statements are too little and too late. More importantly, the US has lost influence in the Middle East region primarily because of its one-sided policy of favoring Israel over the Palestinians. Meanwhile, China, Russia, and overwhelmingly the entire world supports the Palestinian cause.

On August 1, 2024, Wall Street reported that the Biden administration “is scrambling to salvage prospects for a Gaza cease-fire after the political leader of Hamas was killed in a strike in Tehran, dealing a potentially fatal blow to the talks and leaving officials worried that attacks on two fronts.” The global media is now increasingly expressing great anxiety over the development in the Middle East. For example, Mark Landler in his article “Fears of Wider Mideast Conflict Deepen, With U.S. Seen as ‘Not in Control’ published in the New York Times on August 1, 2024, wisely said⁴:

The targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Beirut and Tehran have deepened fears of a region-wide conflict—one that the United States, caught up in its political drama at home, may have little capacity to avert or even contain. For President Biden, who expended time and prestige trying to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas to release hostages in Gaza, the back-to-back assassinations of the Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, and the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, could signal the futility of his diplomatic efforts, at least for now. Moreover, the United States could find itself drawn into a direct conflict with Iran, something both countries have taken pains to avoid through months of tensions over the war in Gaza.

Given its domestic political compulsions, Iran will surely retaliate against Israel. It is just a question of size and timing. A larger regional conflict pitting Iran, Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis against Israel is likely to happen soon enough. However, the threat of a full-blown regional war is extremely low as Iran does not want one. The Iranian leadership is wise enough to know that their country is not a match for the much greater power of Israel. But it will surely retaliate through its formidable alliance network painstakingly built over the decades, especially Hezbollah. This will allow rivals Russia and China to expand their influence at the cost of the US. The Biden administration’s quest for a ceasefire and eventually a path to a two-state solution stands diminished because of Israel’s recklessness.

Given American domestic political considerations in the presidential election year, the Biden administration will not act to forcefully stop Israel from further aggression in the region. Thus, increased regional threat escalations are in order, which will further destabilize the Middle East region. The Palestinians will continue to suffer the most and that would be tragic, to say the least.