The doomsday clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been. The world's geopolitical situation is deteriorating, and people and governments are doing too little, about it. Global tensions reflect the chaotic politics we are experiencing worldwide, and the global rates of conflict are rising dramatically. Current geopolitical issues are the Russia-Ukraine war, the industrial need for semiconductors and batteries, the future impact of China's economy, climate change, the new issue of 'loss and damage' and the geopolitical aspect of the U.S. political divide. A great power conflict like NATO-Russia, China-U.S., or Israel-Iran (and the whole Middle East could be involved) can escalate into a world war.

Global security rises as geopolitical relations deteriorate. Geopolitical tensions are heightened, and divisions are growing. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is reflected in all aspects, including armaments, disarmament, and international security. The world is too uncertain, and too many structural elements are in motion, in the military, economic, and political fields. And all the main actors on the global stage cannot claim to have a decisive strategic advantage in the world system at present or in the near future. We are facing a time of growing Western weakness and division.

Western countries are transforming from welfare states to warfare states, becoming increasingly militarized and mobilized for wartime production, which will have effects on national and global development, dragging everyone down and undoing decades of progress. Europe will face a deteriorating economic situation, because of a deteriorating security situation. In Western states laden with debt and expensive welfare, commitments are structurally limited in how far they can increase their military power and capacity for geostrategic action. The world is rapidly changing, and thinking about long-term strategy and the ability to make ground-breaking strategic decisions returns as a vital necessity. Geopolitical risk is defined as risk associated with wars, terrorist attacks, and tensions between states that affect the normal and peaceful course of international relations. Political risks can arise from issues such as disputes over territory, resources, or ideology. Also, the issues can be the result of a country's foreign policy decisions.

Geopolitics is the study of how geography affects politics and international relations. Geopolitical relations - include relations between the interests of international political actors focused within an area, a space, or a geographical element, which create a geopolitical system. Political instability, tensions, and military conflicts between countries, terrorist threats or geographical events can have a regional or global impact. In today's complex global situation, geopolitical tensions have far-reaching implications across va varietyof sectors. And effects of these tensions are felt across politics, economics, society, and the environment.

Economic risks are an important consideration in global politics. The global economy can be affected by geopolitical events, both directly and indirectly, through financial, trade, and commodity price channels. Increased restrictions due to tensions between countries can disrupt trade flows, cause supply chain problems, affect commodity prices, and lead to shortages of key resources such as oil and gas, affecting industrial production worldwide. The global economy can experience higher inflation, lower growth, and significant welfare losses in times of geopolitical tensions. Rising populist governments pose significant threats to long-term stability and economic performance because they often implement policies that can bring short-term benefits (trade protectionism or increased government spending—fiscal expansion).

The growth of nationalism, protectionism, and populist movements in recent years has created an increasing uncertainty that could potentially lead to a slowdown in globalization, and raise questions around the benefits of increased movements of goods (the Red Sea crises), people, capital, services, technology, and ideas in recent years. And this anti-globalization would counter movements toward a more closed world of self-contained economies where governments protect their industries and citizens from foreign competition. Protection and the rejection of multilateral trade remain real, and this can disrupt global trade flows, increase market volatility, and hinder long-term growth. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts threaten the balance of trade between producers and consumers.

Ships avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal for geopolitical reasons face increased transit times, costs, and emissions. Actually, economic policies and outcomes have a profound impact on politics, shaping public opinion and voter behaviour and affecting the balance of power. Elections are the key political theme in 2024, and could have significant foreign policy implications (elections in Russia, India, Mexico, Taiwan, European elections, and the U.S. elections), which are likely to have the greatest impact on the world's political and economic outlook.

The elections in the U.S.A., the further deepening of the Russia-Ukraine war, and a possible escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict are the major risks facing the global economy today. And also, a risk from the regional war in the Middle East could result in actions against or by Iran that could significantly disrupt Iranian and global oil supplies, and a larger regional war could increase due to the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Societal risks , health risks, environmental risks, safety risks, and climate change are already having an impact on global politics. Wars, national security risks, terrorism, and civil unrest have the greatest impact on geopolitics and increase instability. Energy environment and security can have an impact on individual businesses, entire industries, or the global economy as a whole.

Energy security worldwide remains one of the top 2024 geopolitical risks. Having available and accessible energy resources is crucial to a country's economic development. European energy security has been under threat after losing an abundance of cheap Russian gas and oil for industries and households. Gas prices in Europe are reaching all-time highs. Implementing reforms to combat climate change is on the long-term agenda, while securing affordable energy is a priority for many countries. The digitalization of the energy sector has made energy infrastructure vulnerable to cyberattacks. Energy and climate change continue to be politically polarizing issues, with global progress lacking on the climate transition.

Outside the risks posed by conflicts, the world is facing other risks posed by unregulated and more powerful artificial intelligence (AI) tools, increased protectionism, which disrupts the trade of critical minerals, and the failure to address financial market weaknesses and macroeconomic. Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and severe. The human, financial, organizational, and national security impacts of attacks continue to rise in line with the increasing digitalization of critical infrastructure. The digitalization of many essential services, including power grids, water supply networks, and transportation systems, makes them increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. Cyberattacks in any of these systems can have severe consequences, including an impact on financial markets, economic damage, and loss of life.

Given the complex geopolitical relationships between some of the world's major powers, international cooperation is needed to effectively address cyberattacks. Communications and technology—cyber risks in geopolitics, cybercrime (big and small businesses are at risk by cybercriminals)—are the most significant geopolitical risks associated with the digital age. Technological advancements of China, ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and EU, and China's and the U.S.'s increased military presence in the South China Sea. Trade tensions escalated in 2018 when the U.S. placed restrictions on exports to China and imposed tariffs on Chinese imports (regarding technology due to concerns about intellectual property) to reduce its trade deficit with China. The trade conflict between two countries has significantly affected global trade and disrupted global financial markets. Even amid heightening superpower tensions, China and Uthe U.S.continue their robust bilateral trade.

And large geopolitical conflicts create a series of smaller conflicts (lingering violence in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq), and these countries continue to be some of the most violent places once major powers leave these countries. Violence, racism, endless wars, massacres committed in the name of democracy, and support for Israeli terrorism (genocide against the Palestinian population). Invasion wars that the media wants us to believe are peace missions. We know that the most potent and growing forces in the world are political competition and authoritarianism, not inclusion, democracy, or a desire for peace. Drivers of the violence include struggles over territorial control in conflict zones, militarized political competition, and the disruptive influence of organized crime and corruption on local government. Political elites hire and support armed groups (Sudan, Mexico, and Myanmar) to help them in their competition for authority and control of territories and populations.

Violence is used to obtain the collaboration of local authorities and influence local decision-making. And one can easily understand how important it is to determine the coordinates in a moment of great international tension, which inevitably reverberates in all local situations. The two clashes currently under the global media spotlight—the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian one—are dramatic expressions of this evolution of intra-liberalist relations. Hundreds of thousands of young people are sent to a systematic massacre, while dark holders of military economic power rub their hands, and the stock market indices relating to military industries skyrocket towards astronomical dimensions. Tens of thousands of Palestinians (until now 39.000), most of them children, are sacrificed on the altar of global geopolitical strategies, a genocide that takes place under the pleased or even worried gaze of political leaders of the moment.

The ceasefire is undoubtedly an urgent ethical and political imperative with the interruption of the shipment to Ukraine and Israel, and the immediate truce between Gaza and Ukraine. To get out of the tunnel permanently, it is not enough to plug leaks or produce some reform; it is necessary to question the system in its essence. In other words, to overcome the alternative between freedom and equality, in such a way that the freedom of the individual can be a priority and become a foundation on which to build the principles of society that are fair, just, and respectful of everyone's rights.

To overcome the geopolitical deterioration of relations, the world needs to conduct geopolitical scenario planning, which takes a proactive approach to identifying, assessing, and mitigating geopolitical risks, and the process will help to build resilience. Country risk mitigation strategies should aim at regional and economic diversification and also diversify banks, trading counterparties, suppliers, and vendors. Conflicts happen in countries with poor governance, human rights abuse, and grievances over the unequal distribution of resources, but most often because of the geopolitical interests of the major powers. The United Nations, member states, and regional organizations must strengthen their cooperation and use diplomatic tools to peacefully resolve ongoing conflicts.

Diplomacy must be the driving force behind the collective security system. To maximize the use of the UN Charter regarding the pacific settlement of disputes. Negotiate, negotiate. Peace through dialogue; weapons cannot bring peace. The EU and NATO are not contributing to peace by sending weapons to Ukraine, instead, they are focused on the strategic defeat of Russia. Also, the deterioration of global arms control has increased the possibility of dangerous miscalculations and escalations. Energy and climate change continue to be politically polarizing issues, with global progress lacking on the climate transition. Building mutual trust among nations is the only way to cooperate in resolving international geostrategic problems. By adopting more cooperative engagement principles, and incorporating their viewpoints, nations can create more equitable international communities, sustainable and widely accepted solutions to global issues, and prosperity for all.

All world leaders were shocked by the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, and condemned this attack. Political violence in American democracy. The image of candidate Trump bloodied and raising a fist after escaping an assassination attempt will become iconic for the American right. The attack reflects a society in which threats of political violence are growing.

And what to aspect from the Ursula von der Leyen second term? Does the re-election ensure leadership continuity for the EU block with crises ranging from the war in Ukraine to climate change, migration, and strengthening democracy? In a time of crisis, she will have to confront a different set of challenges to her agenda, contend with a growing number of populist leaders, focus on boosting Europe's defense capabilities, prioritize green policies, and continue arming Ukraine. She will likely face an uphill battle to strengthen transatlantic ties in the event of a second Trump administration.