Despite increased commitments and targets aimed at addressing climate change, current policies are on track to result in approximately 2.7°C of global warming by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels. This projection significantly exceeds the ambitious objective set by the Paris Agreement, which seeks to cap global warming at 1.5°C. Even if all countries fully implement their 2030 nationally determined contributions, long-term pledges, and net-zero targets, global temperatures are still expected to rise by nearly 2°C later in this century. This disparity underscores the pressing need to urgently address climate justice, focusing on correcting the social injustices exacerbated by climate change.

Global warming happens when carbon dioxide (CO2) and other pollutants accumulate in the atmosphere, absorbing sunlight and solar radiation reflected from the Earth's surface. Normally, this radiation would escape into space, but these pollutants, which can persist in the atmosphere for years or centuries, trap the heat, leading to a rise in global temperatures. These heat-trapping pollutants, primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapour, and synthetic fluorinated gases, are known as greenhouse gases, and their warming effect is referred to as the greenhouse effect. Global warming started when rising temperatures emerged in the tropical ocean in the 1950s. Today’s study uses the extra information captured in the proxy record to trace the start of the warming back a full 120 years, to the 1830s.

Fossil fuels are major feedstocks in petrochemicals. Oil is one of the most important commodities in the world. When transformed into petroleum, it is a key energy source used in vehicles, planes, heating, and electricity. Outside of being a crucial energy source, petroleum is used in plastics, paints, chemicals, tape, and so much more. It's hard to imagine a world without oil. The importance of the oil and gas sector to the global economy is significant because plastics could serve as a vital support for fossil fuel companies, as well as countries like Saudi Arabia heavily reliant on fossil fuel production. This role becomes crucial as the global economy shifts away from reliance on oil, gas, and coal. The pivotal role of oil in petrochemical production is underscored by a 2018 report from the International Energy Agency, which highlighted that petrochemicals were becoming the primary driver of global oil demand, surpassing even transportation sectors.

The report further projected that petrochemicals would contribute more than a third of the increase in oil demand by 2030. This profitable relationship between plastics and fossil fuels has influenced international efforts to formulate a global treaty addressing plastic pollution. However, booming economies remains a primary driver of oil demand. According to market research from IBISWorld, revenues for the oil and gas drilling sector reached approximately $4.3 trillion in 2023. This sector encompasses companies involved in exploring, developing, and operating oil and gas fields, also referred to as the oil and gas industry. These developments occur alongside global climate initiatives, such as meetings under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

Developed economies have been heavily investing in the fossil fuel industry in poorer nations, aiming to bolster their own economic interests and revenue streams. Recently, protests erupted in South Africa against the Dutch oil company Shell concerning its oil and gas exploration activities. This highlights the failure of political leaders from developed economies to impose restrictions on exploration, revealing their self-serving motives in maximizing their own benefits and their inconsistent approach to addressing the climate crisis.

According to reports, the United States has emitted more CO2 than any other country to date, with around 400 billion metric tonnes since 1751, accounting for 25% of historical emissions. This is twice as much as China, the world’s second-largest national contributor. The 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28), which are grouped together as they typically negotiate and set targets collaboratively, are also large historical contributors at 22%. Many of the large annual emitters today, such as India and Brazil, are not significant contributors in a historical context. Africa’s regional contribution, relative to its population size, has been very small. This is due to very low per capita emissions, both historically and currently.

Overall, while the U.S. exerts significant influence on global climate policies, the balance between support and pressure is delicate and often subject to international scrutiny and debate. Through international agreements and diplomacy, the U.S. encourages poorer countries to adopt stricter environmental regulations and commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, it remains reluctant to significantly deindustrialize to mitigate greenhouse gases, creating a complex dynamic in global climate negotiations.

Many developing nations, least responsible for the greenhouse gases driving global warming, face disproportionate exposure to costly and destructive effects like extreme weather and rising seas. Despite these challenges, they are also among the world's fastest-growing economies, experiencing surging demand that experts suggest could be best met by transitioning to clean energy, provided they can manage debt burdens and secure financing.

According to the report, approximately $1.4 trillion would be required from domestic spending. However, there is a pressing need to increase international private finance by more than 15 times and triple funding from multilateral development banks. Finance has been a central issue in international climate negotiations, in recent years due to the failure of wealthier nations to fulfil their 2009 commitment to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance for clean energy by 2030.

In 2023, an independent group of global leaders proposed the best solution through a significant report from the Climate Overshoot Commission, offering crucial guidance at a pivotal moment. The report has drawn attention primarily for its call to immediately halt "solar radiation management"—the practice of deflecting the sun's rays to mitigate warming. The commission's objective was to assess the optimal combination of all possible responses.

Authored by 12 global leaders, including former presidents of Niger, Kiribati, and Mexico, the report incorporated input from a youth panel and scientific advisers. The Climate Overshoot Report identifies four primary responses to warming exceeding 1.5°C:

  1. Reduce emissions to mitigate warming.

  2. Explore interventions to limit warming by intentionally reflecting a portion of sunlight back into space.

  3. Remove carbon already present in the atmosphere or ocean.

  4. Adapt to the changing climate.