Whatever structure has been reared by a long sequence of years, at the cost of great toil and through the great kindness of the gods, is scattered and dispersed by a single day. Nay, he who has said "a day" has granted too long a postponement to swift-coming misfortune; an hour, an instant of time, suffices for the overthrow of empires! It would be some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works, if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.

( Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, 91.6)

Managing humanitarian crises during or in the aftermath of disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and epidemics, although difficult, may eventually turn impossible to respond to. Plus, managing humanitarian crises during military conflicts may prove the most difficult case to deal with, especially when related to human rights concerns. Unanswered questions arise, with the most pressing one being why the sudden appearance occurred.

Things get even worse when these unexpected disastrous events exceed the capacity of local governments, local public health systems, and local aid organizations. Even when there is a need for international assistance and guidance in disaster events, such offers are often rejected.

At some point, everyone encounters both the consequences and the unexpected trend of events, leading to a pressing question. What caused that to happen? How?

Logical questions, but due to human actions, it is difficult to understand and predict their accuracy. Most events in the Middle East classified as disasters are the result of unpredicted situations. Estimating the unexpected occurrences of these disasters in the above region is a significant challenge.

To begin finding specific answers for the Middle East, the work of the philosopher and writer Seneca may prove very useful. He endeavoured to emphasize that the acquisition of fortune is a lengthy and slightly increasing process, but transforming the situation into ruin is a quick procedure. The Seneca effect is embedded in mathematical models that attempt to explain situations where a system's rate of decline is sharper or reaches a collapse that is completely different from its previous rate of growth. Various models have been developed to show the trend of dramatic events, trying to explain some events thanks to the so-called Seneca cliff. Models that examine rapid decline across societies, such as the fall of empires, financial crises, major famines, and even the Mediterranean environment, are being studied. However, the issue is how this model can explain the sudden changes or failures in the Middle Eastern environment. The collapses in the above cases may not be a flaw or a bug, but rather an ethnically or religiously defined unrest with uncontrolled pathways. Their structures often appear new and better adapted, but our experience has shown otherwise.

We have observed in the Middle East that when things start going bad, they tend to go bad very quickly. The 'Seneca effect' or 'Seneca cliff' is a popular term for this collapsing tendency. Predicting and explaining the trend of disastrous events in the region is believed to be possible now.

The local player's intentions are proving to be a challenge for us to handle. The frequent occurrence of unexpected conflicts makes it challenging to establish a method for comprehending motives and ultimately proposing a solution. Regrettably, we only see ourselves as spectators of the collapse. The underlying signs of the impending conflict are present, but how can they not be observed? It is important to comprehend the reasons why the Middle East's disasters are evolving and causing sudden falls at a rapid pace that we haven't been paying attention to so far. It is necessary to create specific models for the Middle East and examine how different components of local systems can interact to finally lead to a collapse. We become accustomed to things that seem reasonable, but we're troubled when we realize things don't work out.

The Seneca Effect tries to answer the question of faster decline than growth. The historical data used shows that the rates of decline are generally sharper than those of increase. Operators should be cautious when examining Middle East cases and take into account the local particularities as a whole by including even minor regional data. What follows might be described as 'Seneca Rebound', which often occurs when we propose new systems to replace the collapsed system.

Some models we developed with the Seneca effect in mind can explain the sudden collapse, but it's important to keep in mind that major international disaster support services may be linked to an unwelcome, severe disruption in society's functioning. This in turn may cause widespread human, material, or environmental losses that exceed the ability of the affected society to cope with its resources.

The inhuman leadership of criminal groups has made it difficult for us to act decisively in human rights situations, especially those that result in an increase in the humanitarian needs of affected populations. Human rights protection is a crucial component of the plans during these crucial humanitarian responses. Supporting and strengthening all related steps is necessary during many disaster phases, such as preparedness and prevention.

We try to find alternatives to the Seneca effect, hoping that it isn't the only possible outcome. The 'anti-Seneca' curve, which has a slower decline than growth, was generated by attempts to intervene susefully in the Middle East. We may overlook the Seneca Cliff at our own risk, but it may result in unprecedented negative outcomes.

However, there is one thing that is certain: The Seneca effect in the Middle East is caused by a combination of complicated processes, necessitating analysis and explanation of the factors involved.