After years of speculation, Apple unveiled the Vision Pro virtual (or rather "mixed") reality glasses on June 5 this year, with plans to make them available in early 2024 at an astronomical price of $3,499. This marks Apple's first product in a new category and market segment since the Apple Watch in 2015.

Opinions are divided. On the one hand, the price makes the product unappealing for mass adoption, something Google didn't achieve with Google Glass, nor did Meta with the purchase of Oculus and the various Rift and Quest models, all of which are frankly more accessible devices for the typical technology consumer. On the other hand, there are those who argue that whenever Apple enters a new segment, the entire industry changes. Looking at past examples like the Macintosh, iMac, iPod, iPhone, iPad, and iCloud, it's clear that Apple has a history of shaping markets. Nevertheless, Reuters reported that the Chinese company Luxshare, the exclusive manufacturer of the device, is preparing to produce less than 400,000 units in 2024. This means that in the first year, Apple's new product would sell fewer than half a million units.

Another challenge, not only for the initial adoption of the technology but also for its long-term success, is the lack of applications and games that can make full use of such hardware. With such a limited user base, there isn't a significant incentive for developers to create new content. While some argue, "Because this time it's Apple, it's going to be different," it remains to be seen if this will hold true.

As a counterexample: Facebook, which, at the height of its infamy and financial power, changed its name to Meta and invested billions in an attempt to grow the Oculus VR ecosystem, now referred to as Meta Quest. Despite the much-talked-about Horizon Worlds, by October 2022, it had no more than 200,000 active users, many of whom used a much cheaper device than Apple's—the Meta Quest 2. Apple seems to be attempting to move mountains in a matter of months, and I honestly don't understand why. Without an ecosystem with sufficient software, this adventure appears destined for failure.

However, Apple is not just entering the realm of virtual reality; it's emphasizing "mixed reality," a concept that seems more focused on the applications of augmented reality than the entertainment aspects of virtual reality. So, why opt for such a bulky and uncomfortable device, one that can even cause balance problems and motion sickness?

Wouldn't it have made more sense for Apple to follow in Google's footsteps a decade later and succeed in popularizing new technology, thus driving the whole industry forward?

Even if sales are disappointing or Apple fans complain, it's just 400,000 units. Moreover, the price isn't even close to being the most expensive item in Apple's catalog. If it works to some extent, Apple will have established itself in the AR/VR market as the more expensive alternative to Meta, much like the iPhone is already a premium alternative to Android.

On the other hand, if this launch fails, Apple will simply move on. It hasn't invested years or billions in research and development. It recognized the potential of something new and interesting, attempted to do it better, but didn't bet the company's future on it.

To me, what remains unsaid in this story is that for those of us who grew up with Steve Jobs' speeches announcing innovative Apple products that changed industries and sometimes even society as a whole, everything since the Apple Watch (and that's a stretch) isn't truly innovative. Whether the Vision Pro succeeds or not, it doesn't represent the type of innovation that Apple has traditionally been associated with, and the lack of interest in the product on the Internet reflects that.